Seven in 10 Americans say the Dream is alive — but young people and high costs tell a different story

Six months into a year marked by tariff confusion, a U.S. debt downgrade, and deepening political polarization, Americans are doing something that might surprise the pundits: they still believe. For the sixth consecutive year, a nationally representative survey finds that roughly 7 in 10 Americans say they have either achieved the American Dream or are on their way to achieving it — and fewer people than last year think it is out of reach.

The 2025 American Dream Snapshot, conducted May 1–5 by the Archbridge Institute in partnership with NORC at the University of Chicago, surveyed 2,131 adults using a probability-based panel designed to represent the U.S. household population. Its headline finding: 69% of Americans say they have achieved the American Dream or are on track, down only slightly from prior years, while 30% call it out of reach — an improvement from 32% last year.

A separate 'American Dream at 250' survey of 2,100 Americans, polled April 2–6 for the Archbridge Institute, adds texture to that picture. It found 67% of respondents have achieved or are pursuing the Dream, 64% believe it can unite Americans across different backgrounds, and 71% say they have similar or more opportunities than their parents, according to the New York Post. Yet the same poll recorded pessimism at an all-time high since the annual survey launched in 2020 — rising from 18% in 2022 to 33% this year.

At 250 years old, the American Dream's death is greatly exaggerated, and public opinion proves it. While Americans are increasingly pessimistic about affordability and AI in today's America, there is still overwhelming consensus that the American Dream is achievable across demographic groups and regardless of political party. This bodes well for national unity.— Gonzalo Schwarz, President and CEO, Archbridge Institute

But the aggregate optimism masks a fault line running along generational lines. Nearly twice as many adults ages 18–29 believe the Dream is out of reach (39%) compared to adults ages 60 and older (20%), according to the Archbridge Institute. The institute notes this gap has been a consistent finding across all six years of the survey, and cautions — paraphrasing President Ronald Reagan — that 'the American Dream is never more than one generation away from extinction.'

Education and income sharpen the divide further. Among Americans with at least a bachelor's degree, only 16% say the Dream is out of reach. For those without a college degree, that figure rises to more than one-third. For Americans without a high school diploma, it climbs above one-half, according to the Archbridge Institute. A similar gap exists between high- and low-income earners.

When asked what the American Dream actually means to them, Americans in 2025 describe something broader than the classic image of a house with a white picket fence. Freedom of choice in how to live, a good family life, and a comfortable retirement rank highly, while wealth ranks far lower, according to the Archbridge Institute's survey data.

For those who do find the Dream out of reach, the obstacle is overwhelmingly economic. Nearly 6 in 10 respondents who called the Dream unattainable cited poor economic conditions as their biggest barrier — including rising housing prices, high cost of living, and low wages — more than all other reasons combined, according to the Archbridge Institute. The April survey also highlighted cost of living and housing prices as major concerns.

The housing dimension of the Dream has become its most contested terrain. A piece published by HousingWire pushes back against what it describes as elite institutions periodically declaring middle-class homeownership dead — arguing that the problem is geographic, not national. Nationally, roughly two-thirds of U.S. households still own their homes, a rate broadly within the band the country has occupied since the late 1960s, according to HousingWire. Among households aged 35 to 44, ownership remains above 60% — below prior peaks, but still a majority.

The mistake is simple: Harvard is confusing a broken geography with a broken country.— HousingWire analysis

The HousingWire argument is that homeownership has not disappeared — it has migrated. Families priced out of Boston, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Washington have moved to Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and the outer rings of major growth markets, where they are still trading rent payments for mortgages. The product has changed — smaller lots, townhomes, patio homes, duplexes — but the ownership ladder still exists where local governments allow it to be built, according to HousingWire.

The analysis places blame squarely on policy choices rather than structural inevitability: decades of restricting new housing, slowing permitting, and fighting density in expensive markets drove up prices, locked out young families, and pushed builders elsewhere. 'You cannot regulate every attainable option out of existence and then blame capitalism for the price,' HousingWire writes.

Technology is emerging as a new anxiety layered on top of the old economic ones. The April survey found that 43% of respondents worry that artificial intelligence will hinder their ability to achieve the American Dream, while only 18% said it would help them, according to the New York Post. The remaining 39% believe it would have no effect.

On national pride and unity, the surveys find a public that is personally optimistic but collectively uncertain. While 73% of respondents said they are proud to be American and 70% say being American is an important part of their identity, only 58% say they are hopeful about the future of the United States as a whole — compared to over 80% who are hopeful about their own personal future, according to the New York Post. And while 64% agree the American Dream can unite Americans, only 48% believe most Americans can actually achieve it, with 52% calling it unreachable for the average person.

Politically, Republicans saw the largest year-over-year increase in optimism: 78% say they have achieved or are on their way to achieving the American Dream, up from 72% last year, according to the Archbridge Institute. Republicans and Democrats are both more optimistic than Independents.

The Archbridge Institute frames the findings as a call to action rather than a cause for complacency. Economic conditions remain the dominant barrier, pointing toward the need for policy reforms at state and federal levels to remove financial obstacles. The generational pessimism among younger Americans is flagged as the trend most worth watching — because a Dream that the next generation stops believing in is one that may not survive the generation after.

Why it matters — The American Dream remains a rare point of broad consensus in a polarized country, but a generational pessimism gap and an affordability crisis concentrated in specific markets are quietly eroding the foundation — and the policy choices that created those conditions can, the data suggests, be reversed.

Sources differ on Share of Americans who have achieved or are pursuing the American Dream: 69% (achieved or on the way) (archbridgeinstitute.org) vs 67% (achieved or pursuing) (nypost.com)

Sources differ on Share who say the Dream is out of reach for most Americans: 30% say it is out of reach for their own family (archbridgeinstitute.org) vs 52% say it is unreachable for most Americans generally (nypost.com)

Reported by merriam-webster.com, archbridgeinstitute.org, nypost.com, housingwire.com