Tropical Depression Six to briefly become a storm, then fade — no land threat

Tropical Depression Six is drifting slowly northeast about 475 miles southwest of the Azores — and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say it will briefly earn a name before the atmosphere dismantles it, posing no threat to any coastline.

In its 3 a.m. GMT Sunday discussion, the NHC held the system's intensity at 30 knots (35 mph) despite satellite data suggesting it had already reached tropical storm strength. The reason: an ASCAT-C satellite overpass — a direct measurement of surface winds — showed maximum winds near 30 knots, and forecasters weighted that hard data over the satellite estimates. The depression needs sustained winds of 39 mph to become a named tropical storm; if it gets there, it would be called Fay.

The NHC's forecast calls for a brief window of strengthening over the next 24 hours, as a small upper-level low is expected to develop along a cyclonic shear axis near the depression's center, temporarily reducing the hostile wind shear around it. The system is forecast to reach 45 knots — tropical storm strength — by Monday morning before the atmosphere turns against it.

After that 24-hour window closes, strong upper-level northerly or northwesterly winds are forecast to move over the cyclone, generating intense wind shear and triggering a weakening trend. Even if the shear eases after 48 to 60 hours, the system will by then be embedded in an area of dry air and atmospheric subsidence that will suppress the convection keeping it alive. The NHC expects it to degrade to a remnant low between 60 and 72 hours, then weaken further to a trough between 96 and 120 hours, and dissipate entirely by Thursday.

The storm's track adds another layer to its short life. Right now it is drifting north-northeast at about 4 knots, caught between a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and a deep-layer mid-latitude trough to the northwest — a weak steering environment that is keeping it nearly stationary. As the southern portion of that trough weakens over the next couple of days and a new ridge builds to the west and northwest, the system is expected to stop its northward drift and turn southwestward — essentially retreating back into open ocean until it falls apart. Track guidance shifted slightly westward since the previous forecast, and the NHC nudged its official track west accordingly.

Wind shear and some dry air will limit development as this system will likely only reach tropical storm strength before losing wind intensity near the middle of next week.— Alexander Duffus, AccuWeather meteorologist

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, and the NHC reported no hazards affecting land. The Tropical Weather Outlook issued Sunday morning confirmed that no additional tropical cyclone formation is expected anywhere in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of America over the next seven days.

Six's formation comes against the backdrop of an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season. Prior to this system organizing Saturday, the Atlantic had produced only five named storms — Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard — and not a single hurricane. Forecasters have linked the slow season to El Niño conditions, which increase wind shear over the Atlantic and suppress storm development, while simultaneously fueling above-average activity in the Eastern Pacific, which has already seen more than a dozen named systems.

El Niño conditions are associated with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in the Western Atlantic Ocean Basin.— Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA lead for seasonal hurricane outlook

Why it matters — With no land threat and a short lifespan forecast, Six is unlikely to cause direct harm, but its emergence underscores how even a historically quiet El Niño Atlantic season can still generate tropical systems — and shows exactly how forecasters use satellite tools to make real-time intensity calls.

Reported by noaa.gov, va.gov, watchers.news, newsweek.com, houstonchronicle.com