GOP Alarm Bells Ring 45 Days Out: Senate, House Control Both Now in Play

A poll commissioned by a firm founded by the National Republican Congressional Committee's own former polling director showed Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by 15 points in North Carolina's Senate race this week — and rather than dismiss it, Republican senators began openly discussing whether to cut the state loose entirely.

With 45 days until the November 3 midterms, the warning signs for Republicans have converged into something harder to explain away: candidates distancing themselves from President Donald Trump in districts he won easily, super PAC money failing to move polls, and veteran operatives now saying control of both the Senate and the House is genuinely at risk.

Six months ago, you would have said the House is in play, but not the Senate. But now you'd have to say both.— Chris Nicholson, veteran GOP consultant

A Harper Polling survey — the firm was founded by Brock McCleary, who previously served as the NRCC's polling director — placed Cooper at 49 percent and Whatley at 34 percent among 608 likely voters questioned between September 13 and 15, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.97 points. It is not an outlier: other recent surveys have also shown Cooper with comfortable leads in a state where retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis currently holds the seat.

The response inside Republican ranks has been candid to an unusual degree. Senator John Cornyn of Texas told Semafor that Georgia looked 'pretty close to done' and North Carolina was 'close to that.' An unnamed Republican senator told the same outlet that party leaders should consider shifting resources away from both states.

These are always tough decisions, but it's a zero-sum game. North Carolina and Georgia have consistently shown us behind.— Unnamed Republican senator

A Republican source familiar with the discussions told HuffPost that leading party operatives have begun talking about withdrawing support for Representative Mike Collins, who is running well behind Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia's Senate race.

The broader numbers explain the anxiety. A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week gave Democrats a 51 percent to 43 percent edge on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters. The same survey found voters trusted Democrats over Republicans on the economy, immigration, foreign wars, healthcare, and the deficit. Just 36 percent of voters said Trump was focused on the right issues, and only 32 percent said he made the right call attacking Iran. According to a Cook Political Report survey, Democrats are ahead of Republicans across the 37 most competitive House districts that Trump carried in 2024, hold a two-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, and Trump's approval rating sits roughly 16 points below water.

There have been warning signs for Republicans for at least most of the year, if not before. Any midterm election with an unpopular president is potentially treacherous for his party.— Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher, Inside Elections

The president's poor job approval rating has laid the foundation for Democrats to win in states where they normally don't have any business competing.— Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher, Inside Elections

The most visible symptom of that pressure is the speed at which individual Republicans are rewriting their own political identities. Florida Representative María Elvira Salazar — who previously called for a 'deportation army' to help Trump — released a television advertisement this week addressing the president directly, warning that immigration enforcement had gone 'too far' and that Hispanic voters who backed him in 2024 now felt betrayed. She cited figures from the ad: in July, 50 percent of the 50,000 people detained by ICE had no criminal record.

Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.— Rep. María Elvira Salazar, in campaign advertisement

Salazar is facing Democrat Eliott Rodriguez in a closer-than-expected race in her majority-Latino South Florida district, according to HuffPost. In Iowa, Representative Ashley Hinson — who launched her Senate campaign pledging to be Trump's 'strongest ally in the Senate' — released an ad this week touting her work with Democrats, after polls showed Democratic state Representative Josh Turek opening a small lead over her.

In Iowa, Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks reversed their earlier positions, voting to curtail Trump's authority to pursue military action against Iran without first obtaining congressional approval. According to The Daily Beast, Nunn cited his opposition to another "open-ended war," while Miller-Meeks pointed to costs at the gas pump as her reason. Senator Susan Collins of Maine was absent from Trump's Dallas midterm convention. A number of GOP candidates have removed Trump's name from their campaign websites, among them MAGA Republican Andy Barr, who is seeking the Kentucky Senate seat that will be vacated by Senator Mitch McConnell; California Representative Young Kim; and Ralph Alvarado, a Republican vying for a Kentucky House seat.

Texas — a state Trump carried by 14 points in 2024 — has nonetheless seen the political landscape shift. Numbers from a Siena College/ReconMR survey put Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa four points ahead of Republican Governor Greg Abbott, 49 percent to 45 percent, marking the first time a major poll has shown Abbott behind in the 2026 race. Despite outspending Hinojosa by a 10-to-1 ratio over the past month, according to HuffPost, Abbott has watched polling averages drift in the Democrat's direction. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey, however, puts Abbott in front 49 to 46. Several recent polls of the Texas Senate contest show Democratic nominee James Talarico either ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton or running even with him.

The money problem extends beyond Texas. Republican spending of $40 million in Nevada's governor's race has produced a toss-up, while $70 million spent by Ohio Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has left Democrat Amy Acton with a narrow lead, according to HuffPost. With Trump's super PAC having committed $138 million to shore up vulnerable candidates, doubts are growing within the party about whether the ads are delivering the right message. A memo released this week by the American Principles Project, a social conservative group, conceded that anti-transgender advertising "may not be sufficient" and that "the Republican sales pitch to voters on the economy is at best unclear."

If money can't turn some of these races around, things are going to get ugly.— Unnamed Republican consultant

You've got real momentum on the Democrat side, and if we don't watch out, you know, everybody all of a sudden now is just awakened to the fact that we may lose in the midterm.— Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.)

Trump, for his part, has urged Republicans in tight races to campaign on his record and has insisted the party will prevail. During a tele-rally for Virginia Congressman Rob Wittman on Thursday, he told supporters to 'pretend I'm on the ballot' to drive turnout, arguing that his presence on the ticket has historically produced strong Republican results.

You have to do one favor for me, pretend that I'm on the ballot. Because when I've been on the ballot, which has been three times, we've gotten tremendous turnout, and when I'm not, we don't get the same turnout.— President Donald Trump, tele-rally for Rep. Rob Wittman

Democrats need to pick up four Senate seats to win a majority. Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Both parties' operatives now consider Senate contests in Iowa and Kansas to be competitive, and HuffPost reported that the head of a prominent GOP polling firm cautioned this week that members holding seats Trump won by margins of up to 15 points ought to survey their districts to verify they remain secure.

Why it matters — If current trends hold, Republicans could lose control of both chambers of Congress for the first time since Trump's return to the White House, reshaping his ability to advance his second-term agenda.

Sources differ on Texas governor's race polling: Hinojosa leads Abbott 49%-45% (Siena College/ReconMR) (newsweek.com) vs Abbott leads Hinojosa 49%-46% (Emerson College Polling/Nexstar) (newsweek.com)

Reported by newsweek.com, nytimes.com, usnews.com, huffpost.com, thedailybeast.com, reuters.com