Democrats are ditching mail ballots for in-person voting ahead of 2026 midterms, NBC poll finds

With the 2026 midterms approaching and President Donald Trump's attacks on mail-in voting intensifying, Democratic voters are quietly changing how they plan to cast their ballots — and the numbers are striking.

A new NBC News poll finds that just 23 percent of registered Democratic voters intend to vote by mail this fall, down sharply from 34 percent at a comparable point before the 2024 election — an 11-point drop. The survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted September 11–15, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Where are those mail voters going? Largely to early in-person voting. Thirty-six percent of Democrats now say they plan to vote early at an in-person site, up 6 points from two years ago. Another 36 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day itself — roughly unchanged from 2024's 35 percent. Five percent said they were unsure how they would vote or unlikely to vote at all.

The shift comes amid two overlapping pressures: concerns about U.S. Postal Service delays and a running legal and political battle over mail ballot rules. On September 14 — the final day of the poll's field period — the U.S. Supreme Court blocked a Trump executive order that sought to impose new criteria for states sending out mail ballots for the midterms.

Democrats have leaned heavily on mail voting since the 2020 election, which took place during the Covid pandemic and drove a broad expansion of the practice. That reliance has made the party's shift in stated intentions all the more notable heading into a consequential midterm cycle.

Independent voters are also moving, if more modestly. Twenty-five percent said they would vote by mail, down three points from 28 percent in 2024, while 28 percent said they would vote in person — up from 22 percent. Thirty-seven percent said they would vote on Election Day, down from 41 percent, and 15 percent were unsure or unlikely to vote.

Republican preferences, by contrast, have held steady. The poll found 16 percent of GOP voters plan to vote by mail, 26 percent early in person, and 53 percent on Election Day — all virtually unchanged from 2024, according to NBC News.

Among early voters, Democrats have a 23-point advantage on the congressional ballot, but among Election Day voters, Republicans have a 14-point advantage. So, if a blue wave comes in, it will hit land at different times, and even on different days or weeks.— Jeff Horwitt, Democratic pollster, Hart Research Associates

Hart Research Associates conducted the poll alongside Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies. Interviews were conducted via a mix of telephone calls and an online survey via text message.

The practical consequence of the Democratic shift is logistical as much as political: early in-person votes are typically counted before Election Day ballots, meaning results in competitive races could arrive in waves rather than all at once — complicating how quickly outcomes are called on election night.

Why it matters — How Democrats vote — by mail, early, or on Election Day — directly shapes when results are counted and called, meaning this shift could affect the pace and narrative of election night 2026 in competitive races.

Reported by nbcnews.com, axios.com, islamtimes.com, breitbart.com