Democrats Lead Generic Ballot by 10–13 Points as Trump Hits Record-Low Approval
With 40 days to Election Day, multiple polls show Democrats holding their largest congressional leads of Trump's second term, as his approval sinks to 33% and his own party's support erodes.
Forty-two days before Election Day, a wave of independent polls released in September 2026 shows Democrats holding their widest congressional leads of Donald Trump's second term — and Trump himself recording the lowest approval ratings of his presidency, including among Republicans.
The Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, released September 23, put Trump's job approval at 33% with 63% disapproving — a net of −30, the worst reading across 16 monthly waves since May 2025. That broke the previous floor of −26 set in April. It was also the first wave to record approval below 35% and disapproval above 62%.
Forty-two days before Election Day, and as tens of thousands of early voters have already cast their ballots, our new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds President Donald Trump and the Republican Party at their lowest point in the last 18 months.— G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers
The Marist poll, conducted September 14–15, found Trump's approval among registered voters at 39% — with 53% strongly disapproving and only 27% strongly approving, a net disapproval of 20 points. Marist noted this reflects 'an electorate with hardened, high-intensity views rather than soft or persuadable ones.' Trump's favorability among registered voters has fallen from 44% at the start of his second term to 37% now, according to Marist.
On the generic congressional ballot — which asks voters which party's candidate they'll support for the U.S. House — the Democratic leads are consistent across pollsters, though the precise margins vary. The Marquette Law School Poll (fielded September 2–9) found Democrats ahead 54% to 41% among likely voters, and 50% to 42% among registered voters, widening from a 51–45 likely-voter gap in July. The Marist poll showed Democrats at 53% to 41% among registered voters, a 12-point lead. The Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll found Democrats ahead 52–42 among likely voters and 50–42 among registered voters. The aggregated average across pollsters tracked by USPollingData sits around D+7 to D+8.
The most striking new development in the Strength In Numbers data is movement within the Republican base. Trump's net approval among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents fell from +54 in August to +43 in September — an 11-point drop described as outside the poll's margin of error and the lowest recorded in the tracker. Among 2024 Trump voters specifically, strong approval has fallen from 53% in May 2025 to 35% now. Democrats (−90) and independents (−49) barely moved month-to-month, suggesting the new erosion is concentrated among GOP-aligned voters.
Morris pointed to several possible drivers of that Republican slippage: an escalating war in Iran, a resurgent rise in gas-price inflation, and Trump's pledge to give $5,000 to every U.S. adult if his party wins the midterms — a proposal the poll framed as an 'attempted bribe.' On prices specifically, Trump's net approval hit −54 (21% approve, 75% disapprove), described as the worst number recorded for any issue across the entire tracker.
The Marist poll found registered voters favor Democrats over Republicans on the economy (42% to 34%), foreign policy (42% to 36%), and gas prices (40% to 27%). Immigration, long a Republican strength, is now essentially tied nationally: 41% say Democrats would handle it better, 38% say Republicans — a dramatic reversal from 2024, when Republicans led on immigration 42% to 30%. The Strength In Numbers poll similarly found Democrats pulling ahead of Republicans on immigration trust for the first time in that tracker.
The Marquette poll offers a different picture on immigration, finding Republicans still seen as better on immigration and border security — though with a smaller advantage than earlier in 2026. Marquette found Democrats leading on six of ten issues: the federal deficit, foreign policy, the economy, inflation, Medicare and Social Security, and health care. Republicans led on national defense, crime, and immigration. The two parties tied on taxes.
Turnout dynamics may amplify the Democratic edge. Marquette found 77% of registered Democrats say they are certain to vote in November, versus 69% of registered Republicans. Among independents who lean Democratic, 67% say they are certain to vote, compared to 60% among those who lean Republican.
The Marist poll found 52% of registered voters believe the Democratic candidate in their district will win, versus 44% who expect the Republican to prevail. Nearly nine in ten voters say they care at least 'quite a bit' about which party controls Congress — 67% say they care 'a great deal'.
Marist also found voters more likely to describe their congressional vote as a vote against Trump than a vote for him. The Strength In Numbers poll found 54% of Americans say things are going poorly and major, disruptive changes are needed; just 7% say things are going well. Only 26% say they personally are better off than four years ago, versus 45% who say they are doing worse.
Republicans currently hold a 53–47 Senate majority and a majority in the House, according to USPollingData. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats for a working Senate majority. With Election Day set for November 3, 2026, the question is whether polling leads of this size translate into seat gains — a conversion that depends heavily on which districts are competitive and whether Democratic turnout enthusiasm holds.
Voters express relatively high confidence in election mechanics: 75% told Marist they are confident their state or local government will run a fair and accurate election, up from 69% in March. Trust in the U.S. Postal Service to deliver election mail on time has fallen, however — from 71% in 2024 to 58% now.
Why it matters — With Republicans holding narrow majorities in both chambers, polling leads of this size — if they hold — would historically be large enough to flip control of Congress, reshaping the final two years of Trump's second term.
⚠ Not yet confirmed
- The Strength In Numbers/Verasight survey was out of the field before the latest shooting by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Austin, Texas — meaning that event is not reflected in the September results.
- Trump's pledge to give $5,000 to every U.S. adult if his party wins the midterms may be a factor in Republican base erosion.
Sources differ on Which party is better on immigration: Democrats and Republicans essentially tied: 41% D vs 38% R among registered voters (maristpoll.marist.edu) vs Democrats pull ahead of Republicans on immigration trust for the first time in the tracker (gelliottmorris.com) vs Republicans still seen as better on immigration and border security, though advantage has narrowed (law.marquette.edu)
Reported by uspollingdata.com, datawrapper.dwcdn.net, maristpoll.marist.edu, law.marquette.edu, gelliottmorris.com
