Cook Political Report shifts Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats

With less than six weeks until Election Day — and some states already accepting early ballots — the Cook Political Report on Wednesday moved three Senate races toward Democrats, describing the overall fight for Senate control as a 'true toss-up' and warning Republicans they must prove they can withstand what it called a 'very blue environment forming' nationally.

The three shifts: Georgia's race moved from 'Lean Democrat' to 'Likely Democrat,' making a Republican pickup there significantly less likely. Kansas flipped from 'Likely Republican' to 'Lean Republican,' expanding the competitive map. South Carolina moved from 'Solid Republican' to 'Likely Republican,' bringing a state Trump carried by 18 points in 2024 into the conversation.

We have entered the most consequential part of the cycle, and it's now incumbent on Republicans to prove they can withstand the political winds, particularly given the strong Democratic recruits keeping these races competitive.— Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake control — a heavy lift that requires winning in states that lean Republican. Cook now sees outcomes ranging from a one- to five-seat Democratic net gain. Six Republican-held seats are currently rated toss-up or better for Democrats.

The political backdrop driving the shifts: voter discontent over inflation, gas prices, cost of living, and the Iran war, which polls show is broadly unpopular. President Trump's approval ratings have continued to fall, according to Newsweek.

Last month, Cook shifted Senate and gubernatorial races in Texas and Iowa in Democrats' favor. The latest moves are part of a broader wave of forecaster updates this week — Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia also shifted multiple Senate races leftward, moving North Carolina from toss-up to lean Democrat, Alaska from lean Republican to toss-up, and Ohio from lean Republican to toss-up, according to Fox News.

In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is defending his seat against Rep. Mike Collins (R), who is endorsed by President Trump and outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp. Cook's Taylor wrote that Collins 'does not have the time or money — in addition to the type of profile — to make this race truly competitive.' Ossoff holds more than $42.5 million in cash on hand; Collins has just over $2 million, according to the Washington Examiner. Recent polling shows Ossoff leading by 4 to 10 points across multiple surveys, according to Newsweek.

It is simply becoming clear that Rep. Mike Collins does not have the time or money — in addition to the type of profile — to make this race truly competitive. As such, it moves from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.— Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report

In Kansas — a state Trump carried by more than 16 points in 2024 — incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R) is facing Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor. Cook cited controversy over Marshall's billing practices as an OB-GYN physician after the New York Times reported he had sued more than 700 patients over unpaid medical bills. Recent polling shows the race within the margin of error: an Emerson College poll put Hamilton at 45 percent and Marshall at 43 percent among likely voters, while a co/efficient poll gave Marshall a 5-point lead, according to Newsweek.

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has been put on the defensive over his billing and collection practices as an OBGYN, which Democrats promise to prosecute on the air in a state where advertising is fairly inexpensive. The attacks will come just as Democratic Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is running an increasingly strong race.— Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report

In South Carolina, Cook still calls Sen. Darline Graham (R) the 'heavy favorite' over Democratic candidate and doctor Annie Andrews — but cited 'angst about Graham's soft numbers and fears of low turnout' among South Carolina Republicans as the reason for the downgrade. Graham is the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died July 11 from an aortic dissection; she was appointed to the seat and then won a late primary with Trump's endorsement, according to Newsweek. The state backed Trump by 18 points in 2024.

This race is getting the attention it deserves because South Carolinians are tired of paying record-high diesel prices, watching their healthcare get gutted, and getting squeezed by higher interest rates.— Annie Andrews, Democratic candidate, South Carolina

Republicans pushed back on the significance of the moves. Graham's camp pointed to a notable precedent: Cook rated the 2020 South Carolina Senate race a toss-up, and the late Sen. Lindsey Graham won by 10 points.

Buyer beware. Cook Political Report listed the 2020 South Carolina Senate race as a 'Toss Up'. Senator Lindsey Graham won by 10 points.— T.W. Arrighi, spokesperson for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott of South Carolina acknowledged to Fox News Digital earlier this year that 'there's no doubt the climate has gotten more and more difficult,' while maintaining he remains 'incredibly optimistic, not only about holding the majority, but still expanding the majority.' NRSC Press Secretary Bernadette Breslin said Thursday that 'no battleground races can be taken for granted,' according to Fox News.

On the Democratic side, DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand told Fox News Digital she sees 'all the makings of a blue wave.' Sabato's Crystal Ball, while shifting races leftward, still wrote that it 'favor[s] Republicans in the overall race for the Senate' — and noted that Republicans can block a Democratic majority by winning just one of the current toss-up races, according to Fox News.

Why it matters — With Election Day weeks away and early voting already open in some states, these rating shifts signal that Republicans must spend money and attention defending seats they expected to hold easily — potentially stretching resources thin across a wider map than anticipated.

Sources differ on South Carolina Senate race competitiveness: Likely Republican — Cook Political Report downgraded from Solid Republican, citing soft numbers and low-turnout fears among SC Republicans. (washingtonexaminer.com) vs Safe Republican — Sabato's Crystal Ball did not move the race and still rates it safe for Graham. (washingtonexaminer.com)

Reported by axios.com, thehill.com, cookpolitical.com, washingtonexaminer.com, newsweek.com, foxnews.com