Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Race as Multiple September Polls Show Competitive Contest

With early voting roughly a month away, the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has produced a cluster of September polls pointing in the same direction — a Talarico lead — but disagreeing sharply on its size, leaving the contest's outcome genuinely uncertain.

The widest margin comes from the NPR/Marist poll, conducted September 17–20 among 1,139 Texas registered voters, which shows Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 44% — a six-point edge with a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points. A ReconMR poll conducted September 8–11 among likely voters also found a six-point gap, 49% to 43%, according to Levelland News.

But a Texas Southern University poll, conducted September 15–19 among 1,800 likely voters and published September 22, tells a tighter story: Talarico at 47%, Paxton at 46% — a one-point margin well within the poll's 2.31-percentage-point margin of error, making it a statistical dead heat, according to USA Today. Libertarian Ted Brown draws 3% in that survey, with 4% still undecided.

The University of Texas at Austin's Texas Politics Project, which tracks non-partisan public polling in the race since the Republican primary concluded in late May, added the NPR/Marist results to its tracker on September 23.

Both candidates carry negative favorability ratings among likely voters, according to the TSU poll. Talarico is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50%. Paxton's numbers are worse: 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable. The TSU finding on Talarico's net-negative score is, according to USA Today, a departure from several other September polls that had given him a net-positive rating.

The TSU poll shows pronounced demographic splits. Paxton leads Talarico 57% to 37% among likely voters 55 and older. Talarico leads 51% to 42% among voters aged 35 to 54, and leads 76% to 18% among voters under 35, according to USA Today.

The broader national environment is also a factor. The Marist poll found that disapproval of President Donald Trump's job performance outpaces his approval among Texas registered voters, and that opposition to Trump is a motivating factor for a plurality in the congressional vote. Democrats hold a three-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot in Texas, and nearly four in ten Texas registered voters say their family finances have worsened over the past year, according to Marist.

In the same Marist survey, the Texas gubernatorial race between Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican incumbent Greg Abbott is described as competitive.

The Texas Senate seat is one of six Republican-held seats rated highly competitive nationally in 2026, alongside Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, according to Wikipedia's compilation of forecaster ratings. The seat is currently held by a Republican — Paxton won the GOP primary over incumbent Senator John Cornyn — and multiple forecasters rate it a toss-up or lean Democratic. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Why it matters — Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, and a competitive Senate race there would signal a significant shift in the national political landscape heading into November.

Sources differ on Talarico's margin over Paxton in September 2026 polling: Talarico +6 (50% to 44%), registered voters (maristpoll.marist.edu) vs Talarico +6 (49% to 43%), likely voters (levellandnews.net) vs Talarico +1 (47% to 46%), likely voters — within margin of error (usatoday.com)

Reported by wikipedia.org, en.wikipedia.org, maristpoll.marist.edu, levellandnews.net, usatoday.com, texaspolitics.utexas.edu