New poll puts Texas Democrats ahead in Senate and governor races with a month to go

With roughly a month before November's midterm elections, a new statewide poll finds both of Texas's top Democratic candidates leading or competitive with their Republican opponents — a result that, if it holds, would represent a dramatic shift in one of the country's most reliably red states.

The Marist Poll Texas, conducted September 17–20 among 1,139 registered voters, shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 44% in the U.S. Senate race, with 4% undecided. In the governor's race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican incumbent Greg Abbott are competitive. The poll carries a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points.

James Talarico edges Republican Ken Paxton among registered voters statewide, and Democrats are +3 against the Republicans on the generic congressional ballot question. In the gubernatorial contest, Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican incumbent Greg Abbott are competitive.— Marist Poll Texas

The Marist survey also finds that disapproval of President Trump's job performance outpaces his approval among Texas registered voters, and that opposition to Trump is a motivating factor for a plurality of those choosing a candidate in the congressional vote. Nearly four in ten Texas respondents said their family finances have worsened over the past year.

That local picture fits a broader national trend. According to NBC News' polling averages — weighted calculations of all publicly available polls meeting methodology and transparency standards — Trump's approval rating has slid to 39%, with 59% disapproving. He began his second term at 50% approval in the average. Democrats now hold a 9-percentage-point advantage on the question of which party should control Congress, standing at 52% to 43% on a likely-voter scale.

Democrats are heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms with their largest lead yet in the race for Congress and President Donald Trump's approval rating at a significant low.— NBC News

Independents are central to that shift. According to NBC News, independents preferred Democrats by roughly 6 points at the start of Trump's second term. That gap widened sharply during fall 2025 and early 2026 — as public frustration with Trump's handling of the economy, the war in Iran, and the killings of two Americans by federal immigration officers intensified — and now stands at a 16-point Democratic advantage among independent voters. Trump's approval among independents has dropped to 26% in the NBC News average, while his approval among Republicans has dipped to 79% from the mid-to-high 80s earlier in his term.

Voters have specifically soured on Trump's handling of the economy and immigration — two of his signature issues. An NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey found that approval of Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living fell from 40% in April 2025 to 32% by April 2026, while disapproval rose from 60% to 68% over the same period.

Despite the favorable polling snapshot for Democrats, the broader forecasting environment is more cautious. The election forecasting model at Pollsmax currently gives Paxton a 77.9% chance of defeating Talarico, projecting Paxton to win 52.5% of the vote to Talarico's 47.6% — a projected Republican margin of 4.9 points. The model, which runs 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals, rates the Senate contest as 'Lean Republican.'

The structural challenge for Texas Democrats is significant. Donald Trump carried the state by 13.7 points in 2024, and Republicans have dominated recent statewide elections. The Senate seat is open and currently held by Republicans. Pollsmax notes that open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties field well-known nominees, and that the Texas seat will be critical to the balance of power in the U.S. Senate for the remainder of Trump's term.

Republicans, for their part, are banking on the geographic reality of the battleground map. As NBC News notes, many of the key House and Senate contests are being fought in districts and states Trump won in 2024, some by double-digit margins — giving the party structural advantages that polling leads don't automatically overcome. With more than a month remaining, both parties are working to define the final stretch before Election Day.

Why it matters — Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in decades, and both its Senate seat and governorship are now polling within striking distance — results that, combined with Trump's falling approval among independents, will shape whether Republicans can hold their Senate majority.

Sources differ on Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race: Talarico leads Paxton 50%–44% among registered voters (maristpoll.marist.edu) vs Paxton has a 77.9% chance of winning; projected to win by 4.9 points (pollsmax.com)

Reported by thehill.com, nbcnews.com, maristpoll.marist.edu, pollsmax.com