Democrats hold their biggest 2026 midterm lead yet as Trump's approval hits new lows

With roughly a month until Election Day, Democrats have opened their largest lead yet in the race for Congress, and President Donald Trump's approval rating has sunk to levels that, by several measures, exceed the political damage Republicans suffered before their worst midterm defeats of this century.

Democrats now hold a 9-percentage-point advantage in NBC News' polling average on the question of congressional control — 52% to 43% on a likely-voter scale — after the two parties began the cycle effectively tied in the weeks after Trump returned to office. A new CNN poll puts Democrats' generic-ballot lead at 8 points. The Silver Bulletin forecast, which runs roughly 40,000 simulations, currently shows a strong Democratic edge in the race for the House and Senate control near even odds, according to natesilver.net.

The numbers are being driven, above all, by Trump's standing with voters. His net approval sits at minus-34 points among U.S. adults in the latest CNN poll, and minus-29 in CNN's Poll of Polls aggregation. The NBC News polling average puts his approval at 39%, with 59% disapproving — down from 50% approval when he began his second term. By comparison, Trump was between 13 and 15 points underwater at this stage of the 2018 midterms, and George W. Bush was roughly 15 points underwater in a comparable CNN poll before the 2006 midterms. Data journalist G. Elliott Morris has noted Trump appears to be the most unpopular president on the eve of a midterm in modern history, according to CNN.

The economy is the sharpest edge of that unpopularity. Trump's economic approval rating stands at just 27% in the new CNN poll, with 73% disapproving — a net of minus-46. In 2018, his economic approval was generally around 50% and usually in positive territory. Before 2006, Bush's net economic approval was between minus-18 and minus-25. Making the number more consequential: 68% of voters today call the economy 'extremely important' to their vote, compared with 44% in 2018 and 32% in 2006, according to CNN polling. And only 28% of Americans currently view the economy as at least 'somewhat good,' versus 69% in 2018 and 59% in 2006.

Independents have been the engine of the Democratic shift. They preferred Democrats by about 6 points at the start of Trump's second term, according to NBC News, but that lead accelerated sharply through fall 2025 and into 2026 as frustration mounted over the economy, the war in Iran, and the killings of two Americans by federal immigration officers. Democrats now hold a 16-point lead among independents in the NBC News congressional average. Trump's approval among independents has fallen to 26%, while his approval among Republicans — which held in the mid-to-high 80s for the first six months of his term — has slipped to 79%.

The war in Iran adds another weight. The new CNN poll shows Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the war by 47 points and say it was not worth it by 52 points. Before the 2006 midterms, both Bush's approval on the Iraq war and public support for that conflict were about 30 points underwater at their worst. CNN's Harry Enten found that Trump's net approval rating on foreign affairs, at minus-42, is worse than any president since at least Ronald Reagan. One distinction from 2006: there are no U.S. ground troops in Iran, and there have not been large numbers of American troop deaths — factors that may limit how central the war becomes to voters' decisions. Still, 48% of voters today call the war 'extremely important' to their vote, nearly identical to the 46% who said the same about Iraq in 2006, according to CNN.

The anti-Trump vote also appears more organized than in prior cycles. The CNN poll found 44% of registered voters say their vote is meant to send a message of opposition to Trump, versus 19% who say it would signal support — a 25-point gap. In 2018, that split was 38% opposition to 25% support. In 2006, it was 36% to 15%, a 21-point gap.

There is, however, one significant caveat in the data: the generic ballot has not swung as far toward Democrats as the rest of the environment might predict. In 2018, Democrats led the generic ballot by between 9 and 12 points at this stage; in 2006, by between 13 and 18 points. Today's 8-to-9-point Democratic lead is real but trails both of those benchmarks. CNN attributes part of the gap to the Democratic Party's own weak image: just 30% of Americans hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party, its worst number ahead of a midterm since at least 1994, and statistically no better than the GOP's 31% favorable rating. By contrast, Democrats held a 46%-to-40% favorable edge over Republicans in 2018, and a 56%-to-44% edge in 2006.

Republicans are also pointing to structural advantages that could blunt the wave. Many of the most competitive House and Senate battlegrounds are in districts and states Trump carried in 2024, some by double-digit margins. Republicans hold a spending edge in most competitive Senate races, though natesilver.net noted this week that GOP outside money has been less efficient than campaign funds, where Democrats hold a large advantage. Trump and his advisers have argued they can mobilize their base by framing the election as a referendum on his presidency — a strategy that, as CNN notes, also risks energizing an already motivated opposition.

There are signs the generic ballot gap may be widening. NBC News' average, which adjusts for methodology differences across pollsters, shows a steady Democratic drift since the start of the term, and CNN notes that many currently undecided voters appear reachable for Democrats. With five weeks remaining, the trajectory of the economy, the Iran war, and Trump's approval will determine whether 2026 becomes the worst midterm for the GOP this century — or whether the map and the money hold the damage to something more familiar.

Why it matters — If current trends hold, Republicans could lose the House and face a Senate fight in a political environment worse than any midterm in at least two decades — reshaping the final two years of Trump's second term.

Sources differ on Democratic generic-ballot lead size: 8 points (CNN poll) (cnn.com) vs 9 points (NBC News polling average, likely-voter scale) (nbcnews.com)

Sources differ on Trump net approval rating: –34 points among U.S. adults (CNN single poll) (cnn.com) vs –29 points (CNN Poll of Polls aggregation) (cnn.com) vs 39% approve / 59% disapprove, net –20 (NBC News polling average) (nbcnews.com)

Reported by cnn.com, nbcnews.com, natesilver.net