Tropical Depression Fay expected to dissipate by midweek after defying wind shear over open Atlantic

Tropical Depression Fay has surprised forecasters once more, with its convection rebuilding overnight in the central Atlantic — but the National Hurricane Center says the storm is now on a slow march toward dissipation, with no watches or warnings in effect for any coastline.

In Discussion Number 29, issued at 9:00 AM GMT on Sunday, September 27, 2026, the NHC reported that an area of deep convection had grown south of Fay's low-level center, with cloud-top temperatures nearing -80°C. Despite that activity, forecasters held the storm's maximum sustained winds steady at 30 knots (35 mph), noting that Fay's convection has been pulsating rather than organizing into a sustained structure.

Given Fay's pulsating cycles of convection, the initial intensity was held steady at 30 kt, with the caveat that brief periods of slightly stronger max winds are entirely possible.— Forecasters Evans/Hagen, National Hurricane Center

As of the advisory, Fay was centered near 29.2°N, 43.9°W — deep in the open central Atlantic — drifting slowly southward at just 3 knots. The NHC expects that sluggish pace to change early next week as the storm escapes the influence of the Atlantic subtropical high and gets picked up by the prevailing easterlies, triggering a turn to the southwest and then west.

The track forecast was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, with only a slight rightward shift to better align with HCCA guidance, according to the NHC.

Fay has had a turbulent history since forming as a tropical depression on September 17. It strengthened into a tropical storm on September 20, reached its peak sustained winds of 111 km/h (about 60 knots) on September 21, then weakened back to a tropical depression by September 22. It briefly regained tropical storm status on September 24 before weakening again to a tropical depression on September 26, according to RainViewer's observation record spanning 41 readings from September 17 through September 27.

That resilience has been the defining characteristic of this storm. Forecasters had anticipated that strong vertical wind shear would break apart Fay's circulation, but the system has continued to regenerate convection over warm sea surface temperatures. The NHC now expects that pattern to finally end: global forecast models indicate convection will completely dissipate by the middle of next week at the latest, after which Fay is forecast to open up into a trough.

It was anticipated that strong vertical wind shear would work to break apart Fay's circulation, but the storm has proven resilient. Global forecast models still suggest that convection will completely dissipate by the middle of next week at the latest, before Fay opens up into a trough shortly thereafter.— Forecasters Evans/Hagen, National Hurricane Center

The NHC's official forecast has Fay weakening to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours — around September 30 — before dissipating entirely by October 1. In the interim, the storm is expected to waver near tropical depression or weak tropical storm strength as its convection continues to pulse.

No coastal areas are under any watch or warning. The storm poses no threat to land.

Why it matters — Fay has repeatedly defied forecasts by regenerating convection despite hostile wind shear, but the NHC now expects a final dissipation by early October — with no threat to any coastline.

Reported by noaa.gov, rainviewer.com