Trump's 31% approval, a $100m cash gap, and 30 days left: the midterm map in full

Thirty days before Americans vote on November 3, President Donald Trump's approval rating has hit the lowest point of either of his two terms — 31 percent, according to the most recent Associated Press-NORC poll — and the electoral map is shifting fast enough that Republicans are now playing defense in states they carried comfortably just two years ago.

The same AP-NORC survey found only 26 percent of respondents approved of Trump's handling of the economy, two points below former President Joe Biden's lowest recorded rating on the same question. A New York Times/Siena College poll of five Republican-held Senate states — Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas — put Trump's approval across those states at 40 percent, down five points from the newspaper's own surveys of four of those states in June.

The broad stroke is that Americans are disappointed, bordering on angry that President Trump hasn't delivered on the core promises he made when he won re-election.— Henry Olsen, senior fellow, Ethics and Public Policy Center

Voters consistently rank the economy as their top concern, according to multiple surveys. Gas prices — elevated by the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran — dominate kitchen-table conversations, alongside immigration and corruption. NBC News reporters who drove Interstate 80 across eight stops in August, covering one-third of the most competitive House races and two key Senate races, found the frustration visceral and bipartisan.

You take every politician in Washington, you put them all in a bag and start hitting the bag with a baseball bat — you hit the right person.— Rich Seitz, leader of a New Jersey motorcycle club

Even voters who backed Trump multiple times are wavering. Louis Marcelino, a three-time Trump voter from Hazleton, Pennsylvania, told NBC News: "Everything has just gotten more expensive. I don't think he realizes it, but every single American here is paying the price for that war."

THE HOUSE: Forecasters have consistently expected Democrats to seize control of the 435-member chamber. The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball have both recently concluded that the odds of Democrats taking the House have grown. Cook recently shifted 15 House races in Democrats' direction — moving some 'toss-ups' to 'leans Democrat' and some 'lean Republican' seats to 'toss-ups' — and now predicts Democrats are on track to net 5 to 15 seats. A Democratic majority would give the party legislative leverage over Trump and the power to launch investigations; top Democrats have already signaled that probes into Trump's family business dealings would be a top priority.

One emblematic shift: Texas border-district Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, whose seat had been seen as a symbol of Latino voters moving toward Trump in 2024, is now rated a 'toss-up' by Cook against Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido.

THE SENATE: Only 35 of the Senate's 100 seats are on the ballot this cycle, creating a narrower path than the House. Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats for a slim majority — once considered a long shot. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, says the trajectory since Labor Day has moved consistently against Republicans.

The trajectory of the polling since Labor Day has generally been that a bad Republican environment is just getting worse. The Senate just seems to get more and more competitive as the cycle has gone on.— Kyle Kondik, managing editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Times/Siena poll found Democratic candidates tied or ahead in all five Republican-held states it surveyed. Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska by 7 points; former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Ohio's Sen. Jon Husted by 3 points; Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas by 6 points in the Times/Siena survey (a Fox News poll conducted September 24–28 put Talarico ahead 51 to 49 among likely voters); Democrat Josh Turek leads Iowa's Republican Ashley Hinson by 1 point; and Kansas is effectively tied between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor making his first run for office who posted the highest net favorability of any candidate tested in the poll.

In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is expected to win decisively against former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley for a seat currently held by Republicans — enough so that top conservative donors have already begun diverting funds away from that contest, according to Al Jazeera. Democrats have also consistently led in polling for their own seats in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan.

A character gap emerged as a recurring theme in the Times/Siena poll: across all five states surveyed, voters were more inclined to view the Democratic candidate as someone who 'has good character' than the Republican. Voters in four of the five states were similarly more apt to call the Republican candidate 'too far to the right' than to label the Democrat 'too far to the left,' with Ohio standing as the exception, where both candidates rated essentially even on that question.

THE MONEY: Republicans retain a substantial financial advantage. The Republican National Committee had $125.6 million on hand entering September, against the Democratic National Committee's $16.9 million — and the DNC carried $17.6 million in debt. Accounting for the three major committees associated with each party, Republicans held $233.4 million in cash compared with Democrats' $130.4 million, according to a CNBC analysis cited by Al Jazeera. That edge is being deployed defensively: Republicans are pouring millions into races once seen as safe victories. By September 17, gubernatorial and congressional midterm advertising had consumed at least $4 billion, a pace that would make this cycle the costliest midterm election on record, Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, said.

Kondik cautioned that polling accuracy varies significantly by region, with the Midwest presenting particular challenges for forecasters. And individual races carry their own complications beyond the national environment. In New Jersey's 7th District — the state's only true battleground — Republican Rep. Tom Kean is seeking re-election after missing four months of work for a mental health issue he did not disclose to constituents until he returned. He won the seat by 5.4 percent in 2024 in a district Trump carried by just 1.2 points. His challenger is Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a Navy veteran. The district's Hispanic population, roughly 15 percent of residents, has been roiled by Trump's mass deportation campaign.

He should work on himself first.— Gloria Mendez, 29, social worker and Democratic voter, Wharton, N.J.

With 30 days remaining, Kondik put it plainly: there is "much more drama in the Senate than the House races." The question is whether the money Republicans are rushing into endangered seats, and the structural advantage of a Senate map that still requires Democrats to run the table in hostile territory, can offset a national environment that one veteran conservative analyst describes as bordering on anger.

Why it matters — Control of both chambers of Congress — and with it the power to pass legislation, fund the government, and investigate the executive branch — will be decided in 30 days, in a political environment defined by the lowest presidential approval ratings in years.

Reported by aljazeera.com, washingtonexaminer.com, thehill.com, nytimes.com, activote.net, nbcnews.com