GOP Pours $8M Into Kansas Senate Race as Trump-Won State Tightens

Senate Republicans' top super PAC is pulling back from North Carolina and rushing more than $8 million into Kansas — a state Donald Trump carried by nearly 16 percentage points in the last presidential election — in a sign of how badly the party's midterm map has shifted in the final month before November's vote.

The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with top Senate Republicans, made the decision disclosed Friday by four people with direct knowledge of the situation, according to HuffPost. The move signals deepening concern that Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, seeking a second term, is in genuine danger from Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton — the leader of the nation's largest United Methodist Church and a first-time candidate.

According to AdImpact, the Senate Leadership Fund has set aside close to $8.2 million in ad buys over the coming month to back Marshall. Marshall's own campaign has reserved another $2.3 million, with an additional $500,000 from other groups. Hamilton's advertising reservations, meanwhile, total just $590,000, with outside groups committing only a little more than $556,000 on his behalf.

Kansas is a very competitive state.— Sen. Tim Scott, Chair, National Republican Senatorial Committee

Scott added that he expects Marshall to win but acknowledged it will be 'closer than I want it to be.' The Senate Leadership Fund's spending plans reveal the broader pressure: the group had earmarked $18 million for North Carolina over the coming month and has already put roughly $32 million into that state, and those funds are now being redirected to shore up Kansas. That investment is now being trimmed to shore up a state Republicans assumed was safe.

The competitiveness of Kansas traces in part to higher fuel costs tied to the conflict with Iran and other economic concerns weighing on the agriculture-heavy state, according to reporting.

Kansas farmers — including Republicans — are devastated by the war in Iran driving up diesel prices.— Jeanna Repass, Chair, Kansas Democratic Party

Trump himself acknowledged anxiety about Republican Senate candidates on Friday, telling reporters as he departed for a campaign rally in Alabama: 'I am worried about him. I hope he wins.' During a campaign appearance with his North Carolina Senate pick the previous month, Trump argued that higher fuel prices were 'a very inexpensive price to pay' for keeping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Hamilton has drawn support that crosses party lines. Former Republican Gov. Mike Hayden announced Friday that he is endorsing Hamilton — the second Republican former governor of Kansas to do so, after Bill Graves endorsed Hamilton on September 23. Hamilton has run a centrist campaign, emphasizing issues like unwinding tariffs, and has proven a strong fundraiser for a first-time candidate.

On the ground in Topeka last week, scores of people packed into a coffee shop to see Hamilton, with dozens more waiting outside on the sidewalk. Democratic state Rep. Alexis Simmons of Topeka said her skepticism about Hamilton's chances has evaporated, citing his debate performance against Marshall at the Kansas State Fair on September 12.

He's responsive to the public and has done a good job of reflecting Kansas values of hard work, humility and kindness in his policies.— Alexis Simmons, Democratic State Representative, Topeka

A Democrat has not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932 and has not come within 10 points since 1974. Marshall won his first Senate race in 2020 by more than 11 percentage points, the same year Joe Biden defeated Trump nationally. The situation marks a sharp turnaround from the start of the cycle, when Republicans believed their chances to pick up Democratic-held seats outnumbered the incumbents they would need to defend seriously.

Kansas is not the only state straining Republican confidence. In Georgia, Republicans had hoped to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, but party figures are now despairing about their nominee, Rep. Mike Collins. Tim Waters, the Peach County Republican Party chair, put it bluntly in earlier remarks about Collins: 'I don't think he's got much of a shot.' On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are grappling with their own exposure, including uncertainty about retaining their seat in New Hampshire and the need to defeat several Republican incumbents in states such as Ohio, Maine, and Alaska to capture the majority.

Republicans are scrambling because they know Hamilton can win.— Lauren French, Spokesperson, Senate Majority PAC

With roughly one month until the November 3 election, the Kansas race has become a test of whether economic discontent in a deep-red state can overcome a nearly century-long Democratic drought — and whether Republicans' financial firewall can hold.

Why it matters — If Democrats can compete in Kansas — a state they haven't won in a Senate race since 1932 — it signals that Republican incumbents in Trump-won states are more exposed than the party anticipated, with Senate control potentially hinging on races no one expected to matter.

Reported by nytimes.com, huffpost.com, cookpolitical.com, politico.com