Hormuz fertilizer crunch could push grain prices 80% higher, ICC chief warns
With commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sharply reduced, ICC Secretary-General John Denton says the world is sleepwalking into a food crisis while fixating on oil.
Months into a severe restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, the world has been watching oil prices. John Denton, Secretary-General of the International Chamber of Commerce, says it is watching the wrong gauge.
Disruptions in the vital sea route could turn from an energy crisis to a global food crisis due to a reduction in fertilizer supplies.— John Denton, Secretary-General, International Chamber of Commerce
Denton's warning, tied to Wall Street Journal coverage and earlier remarks, centers on a supply chain problem that has received far less attention than crude oil: fertilizer. Persian Gulf producers previously moved roughly 40% of global fertilizer trade through the strait. With commercial traffic now running at sharply reduced levels — about 16 ships in the last 24 hours against a normal daily count of around 85, according to live AIS tracking data from hormuz.now — that flow has effectively stopped.
The ICC estimates that approximately 2.7 million tons of fertilizer have already lost their market due to the difficulty of rerouting logistics, according to reporting aggregated by ground.news. Without fertilizer, next season's harvests shrink. Without harvests, grain prices follow — and the ICC's own modeling puts the potential rise at up to 80% if the strait remains restricted.
Grain prices can rise to 80 per cent if restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Ormuz persist.— John Denton, Secretary-General, International Chamber of Commerce
The regions most exposed are those least able to absorb the shock. ICC policy briefs cited by the South China Morning Post identify Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia as particularly vulnerable — all heavily import-dependent for both food and the fertilizers that produce it.
The Strait of Hormuz has been severely restricted amid tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel. The disruption compounds existing stress: the World Food Programme notes that conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea are simultaneously disrupting the movement of food, fuel, and fertilizer, with consequences it describes as devastating across the world.
India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has also flagged the combined effect of the Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb disruptions, warning that a major food crisis is looming, according to ground.news. The convergence of warnings from a finance minister, a multilateral trade body, and the WFP points to a threat that is moving from projection to policy emergency.
The ICC is calling for coordinated action on three fronts: opening alternative shipping routes, stabilizing cargo insurance markets — which have become prohibitively expensive for many operators — and persuading governments to hold back from export bans that would accelerate price spikes.
Why it matters — A prolonged Hormuz shutdown is not just an energy shock — it is quietly dismantling the fertilizer supply chains that determine how much food the world grows next season, with the heaviest consequences falling on the regions least able to pay higher prices.
⚠ Not yet confirmed
- A UN-led diplomatic mechanism to address the Hormuz closure is under discussion.
- Urea prices rose 82% in the early months of the crisis.
- Eight months into a near-total shutdown
- Iran's February 2026 closure... according to responsiblestatecraft.org
- at approximately 9% of pre-crisis levels
- A UN-led diplomatic mechanism is reportedly under discussion, though no agreement has been announced
Reported by ground.news, iccwbo.org, news.am, scmp.com, hormuz.now, responsiblestatecraft.org, worldports.org, wfp.org
