EU's cheapest EVs set for sevenfold sales jump as affordable models finally flood showrooms
A Transport & Environment report shows EU carbon targets are delivering a wave of sub-€25,000 electric cars — but the group warns that weakening 2030 rules could wipe out nearly three-quarters of those gains.
For years, European drivers who wanted an electric car priced under €25,000 had almost nowhere to turn. Now, in a matter of months, that has changed — and a new report from clean-transport campaign group Transport & Environment traces the shift directly to the EU's tightening CO₂ rules for carmakers.
Sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) starting below €25,000 are on course to rise sevenfold in 2026 compared with 2024, according to T&E's EV progress report published on 5 October 2026. The number of models available in that price bracket has doubled, and around 16 sub-€25,000 models are expected to be on sale by the end of the year.
The broader market is moving at the same pace. European Union buyers purchased 1.64 million battery-electric vehicles between January and August 2026 — a 45% increase on the same period in 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, BEVs claimed a 22% market share and outsold pure petrol cars across a full quarter for the first time.
The model count tells its own story. Almost 40 new electric models launched in the first half of 2026 alone, taking the total number of mass-market BEVs available in Europe above 150. Around 60 new models are expected by the end of the year — nearly four times the average of 15 new models per year recorded between 2021 and 2025.
Volkswagen's ID. Polo illustrates the pent-up demand. The model sold out within weeks of launch, collecting more than 40,000 orders and generating a waiting list of around 10 months, according to T&E's report.
The issue was not the demand, but what they had to offer.— Lucien Mathieu, Cars Director, Transport & Environment
The consumer's appetite for small affordable electric cars proves the car makers' claims wrong.— Lucien Mathieu, Cars Director, Transport & Environment
T&E's explanation for the timing is straightforward: carmakers had little commercial reason to develop affordable EVs during the 2021–2024 period, when EU CO₂ targets remained flat. The stricter targets that took effect in 2025 changed that calculus, and all European carmakers are currently on track to comply with the 2025–2027 rules, according to the report.
Rising fuel costs have added a second push. T&E says the oil price shock stemming from the Iran conflict has cost European road users around €53 billion in total. By mid-September 2026, filling a 50-litre diesel tank cost approximately €30 more than before the conflict began. According to the report's estimates, a driver who made the switch to an electric vehicle at the beginning of the crisis would have accumulated roughly €350 in running-cost savings by mid-September.
The report lands in the middle of an active EU policy debate over the 2030–2035 CO₂ targets. T&E's warning is direct: weakening those targets now would cut the supply of affordable models by nearly three-quarters just as they are reaching showrooms.
Weakening the 2030 target now would choke off affordable models by nearly three-quarters just as they are reaching the market.— Lucien Mathieu, Cars Director, Transport & Environment
The competitive stakes extend beyond European consumers. T&E argues that a sustained regulatory push is also what gives European manufacturers the incentive to build the technology and scale needed to compete against Chinese carmakers, who have rapidly expanded their own affordable EV portfolios. Rolling back ambition, the group says, risks ceding that ground permanently.
The EU's car targets are expanding consumer choice, bringing down the cost of going electric and giving European manufacturers a chance to compete in the global EV race.— Lucien Mathieu, Cars Director, Transport & Environment
The policy decision on the 2030–2035 framework will determine whether the current wave of affordable models is a lasting shift or a temporary surge. For European drivers, the answer will show up in showroom price tags. For European carmakers, it may determine whether they remain relevant in the next decade of the global EV market.
Why it matters — The surge in affordable EVs shows EU emissions rules are reshaping what cars Europeans can actually buy and afford — but a live policy fight over the 2030–2035 targets could reverse those gains and determine whether European carmakers remain competitive against China.
⚠ Not yet confirmed
- The version of the 2035 target proposed by Parliament's rapporteur would cut sales of sub-€25,000 models
Reported by cleantechnica.com, thenextweb.com, transportenvironment.org, review-energy.com, eceee.org, news.lavx.hu, electriccarsreport.com
