Republicans pour $700M into ads to defend red-state seats as midterm map turns hostile

With a month left before Election Day, Republicans have booked more than $700 million in new congressional advertising since September 1 — and the places that money is going tell the real story. Nearly 40 percent of spending by three Trump-aligned groups has landed in states and districts where Donald Trump won by 10 points or more in 2024, a sign that the party is burning cash to defend territory it expected to hold without a fight.

NBC News, drawing on data from the political ad-tracking firm AdImpact, found that figure outpaces the roughly $430 million Democrats booked in new ad reservations over the same period. In the Senate battle alone, almost seven of every ten newly booked advertising dollars are coming from Republicans. But the raw spending gap obscures a costly structural problem: because Republicans are spending largely through outside groups rather than campaigns, they pay sharply higher rates for the same airtime.

Nowhere is that dynamic more visible than Texas, where the Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has drawn nearly $150 million in new Republican ad bookings — an extraordinary sum to protect a seat in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988 and that Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024. According to AdImpact, Texas PAC — a new group aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune — poured more than $83 million into Texas advertising in the past month alone. MAGA Inc., Trump's main super PAC, has added more than $22 million on top of that.

The rate disparity is stark. AdImpact data reported by the AP shows that MAGA Inc., whose ads run primarily on streaming services, has been billed at roughly $894 per airing, while Texas PAC — buying a blend of broadcast and streaming — has paid about $809 per airing; by contrast, Talarico's campaign pays around $290 per airing, a discount federal law extends to candidates. At one football game last month, the cost gap was especially pronounced: Texas PAC spent $450,000 to run a single spot in the Austin market, while Talarico's campaign secured a spot during the same game in the same market for $50,000.

The late timing of the spending surge has compounded the cost problem. Four Republican Senate campaign officials told the AP that groups which reserved advertising time last spring paid far lower rates than MAGA Inc. and its affiliated groups are paying now — in some cases, more than five times less. According to the AP, MAGA Inc. held nearly $416 million in cash at the close of August and began ramping up its spending in September.

After the votes are counted, I think we're going to find the most effective advertising in terms of communicating message and moving voters and poll numbers, the most effective time was advertising that happened well before Labor Day, not after it. A million dollars of advertising in October is a drop in the bucket.— Neil Newhouse, Republican pollster

The New York Times has confirmed that MAGA Inc. — the engine behind the Republican cash surge — is primarily funding two groups, No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC, which together have made more than $150 million in new ad bookings since September 1 across dozens of races, according to NBC News. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who chairs the Senate GOP's campaign arm, told reporters last week that he had met with Trump's chief of staff Susie Wiles and passed along her message.

Money will not be our problem.— Susie Wiles, White House Chief of Staff, as relayed by Sen. Tim Scott

We finally find ourselves at a cash advantage because of MAGA Inc. It's a powerful tool that is providing us with the firepower necessary to really share our message.— Sen. Tim Scott, Chair, National Republican Senatorial Committee

Beyond Texas, Republican spending to defend Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio has exceeded $152 million; AdImpact data cited by the AP puts Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown's backing at $90 million. Michigan has also drawn more than $75 million in new Republican ad dollars in September, according to NBC News. According to a source familiar with the spending cited by NBC News, the super PAC aligned with Senate Republicans announced on Tuesday a $5 million investment in South Carolina — a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.

The expanding map of Republican defensive spending includes Kansas, where Vice President JD Vance recently traveled to campaign for Sen. Roger Marshall against Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton, a Methodist minister whose Topeka appearances have drawn crowds. Thune's group last week pulled back millions initially allocated to North Carolina and redirected them, a reallocation that outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis described with unusual candor.

In the last month, you pretty much have to place your bets. If we have endless resources, then we should spend endlessly in every state. Absent endless resources, you've got to make data-driven decisions about where you can win.— Sen. Thom Tillis, outgoing Republican senator from North Carolina

Republicans are also increasingly concerned about Georgia, where Rep. Mike Collins is working to defeat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at a moment when Collins is contending with negative headlines about a House ethics investigation and his son-in-law's white nationalist views. Tim Waters, chairman of the Peach County Republican Party, was blunt in his assessment to the AP: "I don't think anyone's expecting Collins to win."

The broader political environment driving the spending is one of voter frustration over cost-of-living pressures and the fallout from the war in Iran, according to the AP. Republican strategist Jeanette Hoffman put it plainly: 'Everybody is tired. You see the poll numbers. Everybody is cranky about gas prices. The party in power is playing defense. This is a referendum on the incumbents.'

Democrats are drawing some comfort from the geography of the Republican spending. Lauren French, communications director at Senate Majority PAC, argued that the outpouring of Republican money reflects anxiety rather than strength: "The money is not because there is this swell of Republican momentum; the money is because of a swell of Republican panic." Framing the election as a direct test of whether money can overcome political climate, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer put it to the AP this way: "Can a massive Republican advantage in money beat a massive Democratic advantage in better candidates and political climate? I bet it can."

With the environment not on our side and an incumbent presidency, the three things we have going for us are good candidates, a good map and a lot more money than they do.— Republican strategist involved in Senate races

History offers Republicans little reassurance that money alone decides elections. Democrat Kamala Harris entered the final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign with significantly more money than Trump and lost every critical swing state. Elon Musk's $25 million did not lift his preferred candidate to a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, and Tom Steyer did not advance to the general election in California's governor's race despite spending $216 million of his own money, according to the AP.

The 2026 midterms mark the first national election to take place after the Supreme Court eliminated, in June, caps on how much political parties may spend in coordination with candidates for Congress and president — a ruling that has pushed additional money into what the AP described as a system already awash in cash. Republicans have amassed roughly $1 billion across aligned groups; a comparable collection of major Democratic groups holds at least roughly $579 million, according to the AP.

Why it matters — The Republican cash surge is the largest test yet of whether money can override a hostile political environment — and the answer, playing out in real time across states Republicans once took for granted, will shape which party controls Congress.

Reported by nbcnews.com, ap.org, bostonglobe.com