Hochul leads Blakeman by 12 points in New York governor's race, but independents back challenger

With less than a month until Election Day on November 3, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 12-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman — but buried inside the numbers is a warning sign: independent voters are backing her opponent by a wide margin.

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News survey, conducted October 3–5 among 900 likely New York voters, puts Hochul at 52% and Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, at 40%, with 8% undecided. The credibility interval is ±3.3 percentage points.

Hochul's lead is driven by strong support among New York Democrats, 84% to 8%, but independents break for the Republican, Blakeman, 55% to 34%, a notable contrast with other Emerson statewide polls this cycle, in which independent voters have generally favored the Democratic candidate.— Spencer Kimball, Executive Director, Emerson College Polling

The Emerson result is the third poll in two weeks to show Hochul comfortably ahead. A Siena University poll had her up 50%–41% among likely voters, and a Quinnipiac University survey showed a 19-point gap, with 58% backing her reelection. A Marist Poll released this week, conducted among registered voters, put the margin at 53%–42%, according to CBS News.

Yet Hochul's own job approval is a soft foundation for that lead. The Emerson poll finds 40% of New York voters approve of her performance as governor, while 46% disapprove and 15% are neutral. Among the most motivated voters — those 'very excited' to vote, who make up 59% of the electorate — Hochul leads 58%–35%, a somewhat stronger position than her overall margin suggests.

Blakeman, running with President Donald Trump's endorsement and Madison County Sheriff Todd Hood as his lieutenant governor pick, is making his first bid for the state's top office. He has centered his campaign on crime, immigration, and what he describes as the failures of Democratic governance. Campaigning on Roosevelt Avenue in Queens this week, he pointed to gang activity and street crime as evidence that Hochul's policies — cashless bail, Raise the Age, and the HALT Act — have left communities unsafe, according to CBS News.

We have seen the growth of gangs like Tren de Aragua, the 18th Street Gang, MS-13, and the Triads. These people are preying on our communities, and Kathy Hochul is responsible.— Bruce Blakeman, Republican candidate for governor

Blakeman is also hoping a campaign appearance with Trump in Syracuse on Friday will energize his base — a gamble given that Trump's job approval in New York is deeply negative. The Emerson poll puts Trump at 35% approval and 57% disapproval statewide; the Marist Poll, according to CBS News, found 38% approval and 60% disapproval.

Hochul, meanwhile, has leaned into the powers of incumbency. On Wednesday she was in New York City touting a subway fare-evasion pilot program that installed new doors in 20 stations, which she said produced a 35% drop in fare skipping and would save taxpayers nearly $100 million per year. She said 70 more stations will receive the doors by the end of next year, with all 472 stations eventually to be outfitted, according to CBS News.

It's a validation of their support for me, but also the policies that we focused on for five straight years, which is making New York more affordable and standing up for our residents against these ongoing assaults from the Trump administration.— Kathy Hochul, Governor of New York

On the issues, the Emerson poll finds the economy is the top concern for 34% of New York voters, followed by housing affordability at 17%, threats to democracy at 13%, crime at 12%, and immigration at 10%. Among economic worries, the cost of everyday goods leads at 28%, followed by housing costs and taxes, each at 12%.

One subplot Republicans have tried to exploit — Hochul's relationship with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani — may be cutting against them. The Emerson poll finds a plurality of New York voters, 47%, approve of Mamdani's job performance, with 41% disapproving. That puts the mayor's standing above Hochul's own approval rating and well above that of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who draws just 30% approval and 50% disapproval statewide. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand stands at 33% approval and 38% disapproval.

Hochul is seeking a second full term alongside her running mate, former New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams. She became governor in 2021 when Andrew Cuomo resigned amid sexual harassment claims, and won a full term in 2022 by defeating Republican Lee Zeldin, according to The Center Square.

With the independent-voter gap as the clearest variable, the final weeks of the race will test whether Blakeman can expand his coalition beyond the Republican base — or whether Hochul's structural advantage in a heavily Democratic state proves insurmountable.

Why it matters — New York's governor's race is a test of whether national Democratic headwinds and a restless independent electorate can overcome a large structural partisan advantage in a state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since 2002.

Sources differ on Hochul's lead over Blakeman: +12 points (52%–40%, likely voters) (emersoncollegepolling.com) vs +9 points (50%–41%, likely voters) (thecentersquare.com (citing Siena)) vs +19 points (58%–39%, likely voters) (thecentersquare.com (citing Quinnipiac)) vs +11 points (53%–42%, registered voters) (cbsnews.com (citing Marist))

Reported by thehill.com, thecentersquare.com, cbsnews.com, emersoncollegepolling.com