Kansas Senate race hits toss-up, Minnesota tightens as forecasters widen competitive map

Three weeks before Election Day, national forecasters are redrawing the Senate map in ways that would have seemed far-fetched months ago: Kansas, where a Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate race since 1932, is now rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, while MS NOW has moved it to 'lean Republican' — and Minnesota, long a Democratic stronghold, is no longer considered a safe hold.

On Tuesday, Cook Political Report reclassified Kansas from 'lean Republican' to 'toss-up' as part of a broader update that also moved New Hampshire from 'toss-up' to 'lean Democrat' and North Carolina from 'lean Democrat' to 'likely Democrat.' The outlet now projects Democrats could gain between two and six Senate seats, a range that includes the four-seat pickup they would need for a majority, according to Mediaite.

While Republicans continue to have a financial edge in almost every competitive state, President Donald Trump is a drag across the board even in deep red states due to rising fuel prices and the persistent high cost of living.— Jessica Taylor, Cook Senate and Governors Editor

At the center of the Kansas story is the Rev. Adam Hamilton, co-founder of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in Leawood — the largest Methodist church in the country — who is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Surveys have placed Hamilton in a tie with Marshall or marginally ahead of him in a state Donald Trump carried by 16 points, a development that has unsettled Republicans enough to prompt a notable influx of late-cycle spending.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a top Republican super PAC, recently paused a $30 million ad campaign supporting the GOP Senate candidate in North Carolina and redirected a seven-figure ad buy to Kansas in an effort to bolster Marshall, according to Mediaite. MS NOW reports that the group has now reserved more than $10 million in advertising time in the state, per AdImpact. Vice President JD Vance also visited Kansas last month to rally support for Marshall.

Marshall's vulnerabilities have accumulated. At a Kansas State Fair debate, he drew repeated boos while defending Trump's tariffs, and audience members broke into chants of 'Shame on you!' when he was pressed on his record of suing hundreds of patients over unpaid medical bills, according to Mediaite. Two former Republican Kansas governors have endorsed Hamilton, with former Gov. Bill Graves saying Marshall had 'turned his back' on the state. Questions about Marshall's residency have also surfaced, after The Kansas City Star reported in 2024 that he had made repeated official trips to a vacation home in Florida, according to HPPR.

MS NOW, which moved Kansas to 'lean Republican' rather than toss-up, urges caution about the polls. Among voters who supported Trump in 2024, undecided rates are higher than among Harris supporters — a pattern visible in recent New York Times/Siena and YouGov polls — and should those voters ultimately align with their past behavior, Marshall could gain several points. Polls also show Republican gubernatorial candidate Ty Masterson running ahead of Marshall, raising the question of how many Kansans will actually split their tickets in a state with no history of electing Democratic senators.

Voter registration data offers Democrats one additional signal. While registered Republicans hold a statewide edge over registered Democrats of 45% to 26%, new registrations during August and September ran at a 2-to-1 Democratic advantage over Republicans, according to the Kansas Secretary of State's office — a notably different picture from 2022, when Republicans led new registrations over that same stretch, MS NOW reports. Polls suggest unaffiliated voters, a sizable bloc, favor Hamilton.

Hamilton's path to the general election was itself notable. He beat 10 Democratic primary opponents with roughly 35% of the vote. That victory prompted both Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia and the Cook Political Report to reclassify Kansas away from 'safe' or 'solidly' Republican, moving it to 'likely' Republican — the opening move in a ratings shift that has continued ever since, according to HPPR.

Democrats have won many gubernatorial races in Kansas, but Senate races have eluded them: The last Democratic Senate win in Kansas was nearly a century ago, in 1932, which was Franklin Roosevelt's first election.— Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Minnesota presents a different kind of competitive pressure. With Sen. Tina Smith stepping down, Democrats are without an incumbent in a state that has gone more than 20 years without sending a Republican to the Senate and more than 50 without backing a Republican presidential candidate. MS NOW moved the race from 'likely Democratic' to 'lean Democratic,' citing consistent polling that shows Republicans within striking distance.

Progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic primary in August over centrist Rep. Angie Craig. She faces Republican Michele Tafoya, a well-known former NFL reporter who has been attacking Flanagan over a state social services scandal that has cost Gov. Tim Walz politically. Flanagan holds roughly a four-point average lead over Tafoya — matching the margin by which Harris carried Minnesota in 2024 — and polls indicate she is running a few points behind Sen. Amy Klobuchar and the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, according to MS NOW.

MS NOW also notes that Minnesota has experienced social unrest and violence involving federal agents in the wake of the Trump administration's deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to the state — developments that might have been expected to push polling results further to the left than current surveys reflect.

Both races remain fluid. As MS NOW put it, polls in individual states often miss by several points in either direction, and the final outcome in Kansas and Minnesota may not be known until results come in on Election Day.

Why it matters — If Democrats can force Republicans to defend Kansas — a state uncontested at the Senate level for nearly a century — it stretches GOP resources and makes the party's path to holding the Senate majority significantly harder.

Reported by ms.now, dscc.org, mediaite.com, bloomberg.com, centerforpolitics.org, hppr.org