Six toss-up Senate races will decide if Democrats can claw back the majority from Republicans

Six Senate races are now rated as true toss-ups — and five of them are seats Republicans currently hold. With Election Day roughly two weeks away, forecasters say the nine most competitive contests will determine whether Democrats net the four seats they need to take the majority or whether Republicans hold a chamber they currently control 53–47.

The stakes are significant: no legislation reaches the White House without passing through the Senate, and a Democratic majority would give the party power to block presidential appointments and control which bills reach the floor — even if Democrats fail to win back the House, according to El País.

The Fox News Power Rankings place Democrats and Republicans each on track for 47 seats in races that are not competitive, leaving six true toss-ups and three races rated as one step shy of that — nine contests in all that will likely decide control of the chamber.

Nine races will determine control of the Senate, and on the polling alone, you could call any of them toss-ups.— Remy Numa, Fox News contributor and Power Rankings analyst

Republicans are playing more defense than offense. Of the 35 seats up for election this cycle, 22 are held by the GOP, according to El País. Six of the toss-up seats are Republican-held — a situation that would have seemed unlikely just a few months ago.

The six toss-up races, per Fox News Power Rankings: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Michigan. The first five are Republican-held; Michigan is the lone Democratic-held toss-up.

ALASKA: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term against Democrat and former Rep. Mary Peltola. Trump carried the state by 13 points, but Alaska uses ranked-choice voting in the general election — a format that helped Peltola win the state's House seat in 2022, according to El País.

IOWA: An open seat race after Republican Sen. Joni Ernst chose not to seek a third term. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. Trump carried Iowa by 13 points, and Democrats have not won a Senate race there since 2008, according to El País.

MAINE: Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, the former state Senate president. Collins is the only Republican defending a Senate seat in a state won by Kamala Harris. In 2020, polls had Collins trailing but she won by nearly nine points even as Joe Biden carried Maine, according to El País.

OHIO: A special election to fill the remaining two years of the term won in 2022 by now-Vice President JD Vance. Appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his reelection bid in 2024. Trump carried Ohio by 11 points, according to El País.

TEXAS: An open seat after Republican Sen. John Cornyn lost his primary to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who now faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988, and Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points, according to El País. The Almanac of American Politics notes Paxton's personal baggage and Talarico's profile have drawn major national attention to the race.

MICHIGAN: The lone Democratic-held toss-up. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is trying to hold retiring Sen. Gary Peters' seat against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. The Almanac notes concerns among some observers that El-Sayed's views may be too far left to win in a purple state.

Beyond the six toss-ups, three races rated as 'leaners' could also shift the outcome. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is trying to hold retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's seat against former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu — rated Lean Democrat by Fox News. In Minnesota, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is defending retiring Sen. Tina Smith's seat against Republican Michele Tafoya; Fox News shifted the race from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat this past week as Tafoya appeared to gain traction. In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces a difficult re-election fight against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a pastor — rated Lean Republican.

Two states that were once competitive have effectively been settled. In North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, Republican groups have pulled spending on behalf of GOP nominee Mike Whatley, who trails former Gov. Roy Cooper in polling; Fox News rates the race Likely Democrat. In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holds a solid lead over Republican Rep. Mike Collins, and Republican outside groups have significantly cut spending there; Fox News also rates that race Likely Democrat.

The Almanac of American Politics has also shifted two additional Republican-held seats into competitive territory: South Carolina, moved from Safe Republican to Lean Republican, where appointed Sen. Shelley Moore Capito's successor faces Democrat Annie Andrews; and Nebraska, moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, where Independent Dan Osborn — who held incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer to a 53–47 result in 2024 — is running again after the Democratic nominee dropped out.

The Democratic path to a majority requires holding Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, flipping North Carolina, and winning at least three of the five GOP-controlled toss-up states, according to Fox News. Republicans retain control by holding at least three of the toss-ups where they are playing defense. A 50–50 Senate would remain in GOP hands because Vice President JD Vance would cast the tie-breaking vote.

Senate Democrats are in the strongest position yet to win the majority – with multiple paths to flip GOP-held seats and growing momentum across the map.— Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair

I think it's going very well for us. The momentum, frankly, is with us, not against us.— Sen. Tim Scott, National Republican Senatorial Committee chair

Republicans face a structural headwind beyond the map itself: the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats in midterm election years, according to Fox News. The political climate is further complicated by persistent inflation, high gas prices, and President Trump's approval ratings, which polls show trending negative.

The Almanac of American Politics, which shifted seven races in the Democratic direction since its September assessment, noted that the key races remain close enough that a modest polling error could still allow Republicans to hold the chamber.

Why it matters — Whichever party controls the Senate will decide which of Trump's appointments are confirmed and which legislation advances — making these nine races the central power contest of the 2026 midterms.

Sources differ on Senate momentum heading into Election Day: Democrats are in their strongest position yet to win the majority, with multiple paths to flip GOP-held seats. (foxnews.com (quoting Sen. Gillibrand)) vs Momentum is with Republicans, not against them. (foxnews.com (quoting Sen. Scott))

Reported by foxnews.com, poliwave.com, english.elpais.com, almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com