Trump rallies in NC for Whatley as Cooper leads by 14 points and GOP pulls ad money

President Donald Trump landed in Greenville, North Carolina, on Tuesday evening for his second visit to the state in as many months — a show of force for a Senate race where his endorsed candidate is down double digits, has less than a million dollars in the bank, and has already suspended his own television ads.

The rally at Pitt-Greenville Airport, scheduled for 7 p.m. Eastern, is aimed at boosting Republican Senate nominee Michael Whatley, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, who faces former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in the race for the open seat left by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis. It follows a Monday rally in Hendersonville where Vice President JD Vance appeared alongside Whatley — a back-to-back push that underscores how much Republicans believe they need outside firepower to keep the race alive.

The numbers Whatley is working against are stark. A WRAL/WSOC poll released last week showed Cooper leading 54 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. An Elon University Poll released Tuesday put Cooper's advantage at 13 points. Cooper entered October with roughly $12.5 million on hand; Whatley reported $916,000, according to federal campaign finance records reviewed by WRAL. The Republican Senate Leadership Fund has already begun redirecting advertising money originally earmarked for North Carolina to contests elsewhere.

We all know President Trump drives NC GOP turnout better than anyone else.— DJ Griffin, Whatley campaign (as quoted by WRAL)

That is precisely the theory of the case for Tuesday's rally. Political scientist Chris Cooper of Western Carolina University told WRAL that Trump's coalition includes a large share of irregular voters — people who turned out for Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024 but who tend to stay home in midterms. 'Those kinds of voters are much more likely to be Republicans, MAGA folks,' he said. 'And so when Trump's not on the ballot, they're just not as interested.' Trump himself acknowledged the dynamic at his September 16 Gastonia rally, urging the crowd: 'Pretend I'm on the ticket. Because essentially, I am. We've got to win this election.'

Whether Trump can move those voters is complicated by his own approval numbers in the state. The WRAL/WSOC poll found 37 percent of likely North Carolina voters approve of his job performance, while 60 percent disapprove. The Elon Poll put his approval at 34 percent. In that same Elon survey, 43 percent of registered voters said a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate, compared with 25 percent who said it would make them more likely.

Economic anxiety is driving much of Cooper's lead. The Elon Poll found 76 percent of respondents said the cost of living is worse than before, with only 9 percent saying it is better. Sixty-five percent said the overall economy has deteriorated over the past two years. WRAL reported that analysts and voters attribute elevated inflation in part to the ongoing war in Iran. Voters who believe economic conditions have worsened tend to favor Cooper, according to Elon Poll director Jason Husser.

North Carolina has far more voters who think key issues have gotten worse than voters who think issues have gotten better.— Jason Husser, Director, Elon University Poll

Cooper's coalition is particularly strong among moderates, independents, and women. The Elon Poll showed him winning 50 percent of independent voters — the state's largest voting bloc — against 24 percent for Whatley. Early voting data reinforce the picture: through October 18, Democrats accounted for 46 percent of early ballots cast, Republicans 20 percent, and unaffiliated voters 35 percent, according to state data reported by WRAL. Democratic early voting is up 53 percent from the 2022 midterms; Republican early voting is down about 7 percent.

On the same day as Trump's rally, a conservative PAC called NC First PAC — based in Georgia — reported buying $1.2 million in airtime for anti-Cooper ads, according to WRAL. Nearly all of the group's funding came from a $1 million contribution from a pro-Trump dark money organization called Securing American Greatness, which is not required to disclose its donors.

The most pointed critique of the GOP's position in North Carolina has come from within the party itself. Retiring two-term Sen. Thom Tillis, in a new interview with Politico, warned that Republicans could lose the House and face a difficult fight to hold the Senate — and said he has marked the November 3 election countdown on his phone with the label 'Whoop Ass.' Tillis questioned the choice of Whatley as nominee, saying his background as a party operative rather than a candidate with broader appeal was a liability.

We needed probably a more moderate type of profile.— Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. (retiring)

Tillis also singled out Trump's advisers — including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy — as damaging to the party's prospects, arguing that removing them would change the administration's behavior. He described policies including Trump's trade wars, foreign policy threats, and what he called a 'public execution of a guy in a wheelchair' — a reference to Hegseth's reported plans for a televised public execution — as risks to winning over undecided voters.

He's going to be whoever he is. The only thing I can change are the people around him that may be able to tamp down some of those emotions but also not come up with really, really, really s***ty ideas that he implements.— Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C. (retiring), to Politico

Tillis predicted Republicans would finish with 50 or 51 Senate seats but said the party's longer-term coalition faces structural risk. He argued that many voters drawn to Trump's populism would not remain with the GOP once the party returned to traditional conservative priorities — a warning that extends well beyond November 3.

Husser, the Elon pollster, said he expects Whatley to close some of the gap before Election Day — noting the Republican has a slight edge among undecided voters when pressed to choose — and that Trump and Vance visits have real potential to drive base turnout. 'The president's endorsement still resonates with his base,' Husser said, 'even if those visits do not do much to persuade voters outside the GOP.' With North Carolina having last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 2008, the outcome will test whether a popular former governor can break that streak in a state Trump has carried three consecutive times.

Why it matters — North Carolina's open Senate seat is one of the four Republicans can least afford to lose if Democrats are to take Senate control — and the money, polling, and early-vote data all currently point in the same direction.

Reported by newsweek.com, theguardian.com, newsnationnow.com, wral.com