U.S. alone among major economies drove global emissions higher in 2025, UN report finds

Every other major economy on Earth either cut its carbon pollution last year or slowed its growth. The United States went the other way — and by enough to make the planet's future measurably hotter, according to a report released Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Programme.

The annual Emissions Gap Report, published October 21, 2026, found that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rose by 133 megatons of CO2 equivalent in 2025 — the largest increase of any country and roughly 70% of the total net global rise of 189 million tons recorded among nations that increased emissions. Global emissions overall were roughly flat year-over-year, meaning the U.S. surge was the dominant force pushing the numbers in the wrong direction.

In terms of magnitude, the increase in the United States of America (133 megatons of CO2 equivalent) far exceeded that of all other countries and was driven by increased electricity demand and a rebound of coal power generation.— UNEP Emissions Gap Report

The report attributes the U.S. increase to higher electricity demand, a rebound in coal power generation, and a series of policy shifts under the Trump administration — including orders keeping coal-fired power plants open longer than planned, rolled-back fuel-efficiency standards for vehicles, and the elimination of tax credits for solar and wind projects, according to vpm.org. The U.S. also formally withdrew from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and is working to remove itself from all UN climate work.

The consequences of those choices now show up in the report's core projections. If every country fulfills its current climate pledges, Earth will warm approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 — about one-tenth of a degree Celsius more than last year's equivalent projection. The report directly attributes that worsening to the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised historical emissions estimates.

This is a worse outcome than expected last year, as a result of the formal withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions.— UNEP Emissions Gap Report

That extra tenth of a degree may sound like a rounding error, but researchers say it carries concrete human costs. Australian climate scientist Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, said it would push an additional 140 million people into dangerously hot conditions and raise the odds of collapse of the Amazon rainforest or ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann said it would shave approximately $1.2 trillion from the global economy, according to ca.finance.yahoo.com. Neither Hare nor Mann were part of the UN report, but both said the report was scientifically sound.

This report shows that America's retreat isn't just a political embarrassment. It has real consequences for the planet and for millions of people around the world. An extra tenth of a degree might sound insignificant, but in climate terms it is enormous. It means more dangerous heat waves, more destructive floods, more failed harvests and more lives lost.— Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa

On a per-capita basis, the U.S. tied with Russia as the highest emitters among G20 nations in 2025, according to vpm.org. China emits significantly more greenhouse gases in total each year, but has more than four times the U.S. population.

The broader picture the report paints is one of a world still far off course. Without any national pledges, the planet is on track for 2.8 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming — a level the report warns would trigger catastrophic consequences including massive sea level rise and mass extinction of plants and animals. Even with all current pledges fulfilled, the 2.6-degree projection blows past the Paris Agreement's central goals of staying well below 2 degrees Celsius and preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius.

This is the first year the annual report has formally acknowledged that the 1.5-degree target is out of reach. UN officials are now focusing on limiting warming to around 1.8 degrees Celsius and then drawing enough carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere to eventually return to 1.5 degrees — a scenario that depends on technologies and political will not yet in place.

All countries, especially the big emitters, must do more. Every fraction of a degree matters.— António Guterres, UN Secretary-General

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen pointed out that geopolitical disruption — including energy market upheaval from the wars in Ukraine and Iran — has created pressure on governments worldwide, yet several G20 members have still managed sustained emissions reductions. The European Union, she noted, has invested heavily in energy-efficient appliances and renewable electricity, partly in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Drastically cutting global carbon emissions — by 18% by 2030 and 69% by 2040 — is the only way that we can get back to a semblance of a reality that is still largely manageable without major impacts.— Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director

The report included an unusual formal statement from the U.S. government saying it 'does not endorse or agree with its analysis or conclusions, and has not provided comments to this report,' according to vpm.org. The U.S. State Department did not respond to questions.

The findings land less than a month before global climate talks open in Turkey, where world leaders will discuss accelerating clean energy investment and financing climate adaptation. The Trump administration will not participate in those talks, according to vpm.org.

Under the Paris Agreement, about two-thirds of countries have submitted formal, up-to-date emissions reduction plans. If all follow through, global emissions would fall roughly 15% over the next decade — well short of the 25% reduction the report says is needed to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius.

We know what needs to be done. We have the tools to do it. And delay only makes the challenge more dangerous and more expensive for all.— Adelle Thomas, vice chair of a UN scientific assessment on climate impacts

Why it matters — The U.S. is now measurably responsible for worsening the planet's long-term temperature trajectory at a moment when the window to avoid catastrophic warming is rapidly closing — and it is opting out of the international talks where course corrections are negotiated.

Reported by nytimes.com, ca.finance.yahoo.com, vpm.org