13 Million Early Votes Cast as Democrats, Black and Latino Voters Lead Midterm Surge

More than 13 million Americans had already cast ballots in the 2026 midterm elections as of October 20, according to the University of Florida Election Lab — and in state after state, the numbers are running well ahead of any comparable point in recent midterm history.

Georgia reported a 40% jump in first-day early turnout compared with the 2022 midterms and more than double its 2018 first-day figures, according to NewsNation. Other states have also shown strong early participation, though detailed comparisons vary.

The volume is one story. Who is showing up is another.

We're just looking at probably a high turnout election.— Michael McDonald, political science professor, University of Florida

McDonald, whose Election Lab has tracked early voting since 2008, says Democrats and unaffiliated voters are driving much of the surge, while Republican early participation has been more uneven — and in some states, is actually running below where it stood at this point in both 2018 and 2022.

Democrats are engaged, and people who aren't affiliated with a political party are engaged. But we're not seeing as high levels of engagement among Republicans.— Michael McDonald, political science professor, University of Florida

The gap is sharpest in North Carolina, where registered Democrats have cast more than twice as many early ballots as registered Republicans, according to University of Florida Election Lab figures. Mecklenburg County is on pace for a midterm record, according to the Charlotte Observer. President Donald Trump was scheduled to campaign in the state Tuesday night ahead of a competitive Senate race between Republican Michael Whatley and Democrat Roy Cooper.

Boy, things look really bad for the Republicans in North Carolina.— Michael McDonald, political science professor, University of Florida

McDonald also flagged Kansas and Nebraska — both states that have historically favored Republicans in statewide elections — as places where Democrats are voting at substantially higher early levels than Republicans. Republicans are performing relatively better in Iowa and Maine, though Democrats are also showing strong early participation in those states.

Perhaps the most striking finding involves Black and Latino voters, who McDonald says are participating in early voting at dramatically higher rates than in previous cycles.

So we're seeing numbers that are more than three or four times the level of early voting for Latinos in the data that I'm tracking in North Carolina and Georgia.— Michael McDonald, political science professor, University of Florida

White voters in North Carolina, by contrast, are participating in early voting at lower levels than at comparable points in the previous two midterm elections, even as Black and Latino participation has climbed, McDonald found.

The early voting data tracks ballots received — not votes for specific candidates — and party registration does not reveal who a voter supported. Not every state allows or has begun early voting, and states differ in what information they report. Changes in voting schedules and election rules also complicate direct historical comparisons.

McDonald is careful not to declare the early numbers determinative. Republicans have historically made up ground on Election Day itself — and he expects that pattern to hold.

And it may be that we'll see Republicans start showing up closer to Election Day. In fact, we know that election day tends to be a very red day in terms of the election.— Michael McDonald, political science professor, University of Florida

The stakes driving both parties' urgency are clear: Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the chamber. Key battlegrounds include North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, while Republicans are defending competitive seats in Iowa, Texas, and Kansas. Democrats are working to hold seats in Georgia and Michigan. With two weeks remaining, the early voting patterns broadly reflect where each party is concentrating campaign resources — and where the Senate map is most competitive, according to McDonald.

Why it matters — Early voting patterns in Senate battlegrounds like North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, and Kansas will shape which party controls the Senate — and the demographic shifts among Black, Latino, and unaffiliated voters could alter the competitive map in ways that go beyond traditional partisan baselines.

Reported by wmur.com, houstonchronicle.com, newsnationnow.com, charlotteobserver.com