Putin pitches Trump-Xi summit on Ukraine, while Witkoff secures new round of trilateral talks

Vladimir Putin is running two diplomatic plays at once. On October 21, after a three-hour meeting in St. Petersburg with US special envoy Steve Witkoff, the Kremlin agreed to resume Russia-US-Ukraine peace talks after November 10 — possibly in Abu Dhabi. But Putin is simultaneously pushing a separate, higher-stakes proposal: a leaders' summit with Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, on November 18–19, where he hopes to negotiate an end to the war on terms favorable to Moscow — without Ukraine or the European Union at the table.

The two-track approach lays bare the Kremlin's preferred endgame. The trilateral Russia-US-Ukraine talks, which Witkoff described as 'constructive,' would focus on what Putin's aide Yury Ushakov called 'building the security system for Russia and Ukraine after the end of the war.' But the proposed Trump-Putin-Xi summit — which Putin reportedly raised during a phone call with Trump on October 9, the same call in which the two leaders struck a deal for Washington to buy Russian diesel — would effectively let Moscow negotiate Ukraine's fate with the world's two other major powers while Kyiv watches from outside the room.

There is no clear understanding yet regarding the meeting itself or its potential agenda, although all three parties acknowledge the hypothetical possibility of such a meeting taking place.— Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson

According to The Wall Street Journal, as reported by both Novaya Gazeta Europe and DW, Putin views the proposed Shenzhen gathering as a potential new Yalta Conference — a reference to the 1945 meeting of the US, British, and Soviet leaders to shape the postwar world order. Chinese officials have indicated through diplomatic channels that Beijing would not object to the three-way format if Trump agreed to participate. A senior White House official told the WSJ that Trump has not agreed but could be open to the idea.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has made clear he will not accept being cut out. Speaking in Oslo on October 20, he said talks about his country's future are acceptable only if Ukraine has a seat at the table. On Wednesday, after his own meeting with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, Zelensky said Ukraine wants trilateral negotiations involving Trump, Putin, and himself. He also repeated Kyiv's minimum position: a ceasefire freezing the current frontline — which would leave Ukraine with roughly 75 percent of its territory — followed by meaningful security guarantees from allies.

Russia said many times it is ready for a meeting and then things changed and got cancelled. Let's see what happens this time.— Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine

Russia's negotiating position has not visibly softened. Moscow's previous demands amount to near-total victory: Ukraine surrendering the entire Donbas region, dramatically reducing its military, and pledging never to join NATO. Kremlin aide Ushakov dismissed the new ideas Witkoff brought from Oslo as containing 'little of actual value for resolving the Ukrainian crisis,' according to CNN.

The question analysts are now asking is what China would actually do at such a summit. The answer, according to multiple researchers, is: as little as possible.

Beijing has no intention of taking responsibility for Ukraine's future.— Temur Umarov, researcher, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Berlin

Umarov told DW that Russia's push for the three-way format is partly about optics — Moscow wants to be seen as an equal of both Washington and Beijing, even though, as he noted, it is objectively not the senior partner in the China-Russia relationship. He argued that China would seek language in any joint statement that was as vague and noncommittal as possible, allowing Beijing to present almost any subsequent development in the war as consistent with whatever was agreed.

It is hardly surprising that the Kremlin insists on this format. Russia wants to demonstrate that it is on an equal footing not only with the United States, but also with China. Yet, objectively speaking, Moscow is not the senior partner in that relationship.— Temur Umarov, researcher, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Berlin

Yurii Poita, a senior associate researcher at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), offers a more strategic reading of Beijing's potential interest. He argues that China and Russia share overlapping goals — reducing Western military presence in Europe and Asia and weakening NATO's influence — and that a deal pushing the US to cut military assistance to Ukraine would benefit Russia on the battlefield while eroding European confidence in the United States as a NATO ally.

If Russia and China manage to convince the United States to reduce its military presence in Europe and military assistance to Ukraine, Russia would gain additional advantages on the battlefield.— Yurii Poita, senior associate researcher, Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)

Michael Kimmage, director of the Kennan Institute in the United States, told DW he doubts China is preparing to take a more active diplomatic role. While Beijing may view the conflict as destabilizing and wants to preserve trade relations with Ukraine and other regional partners, he said a different priority dominates Beijing's calculus.

More important to China is the political survival of Vladimir Putin.— Michael Kimmage, director, Kennan Institute

The St. Petersburg meeting did produce one concrete result: Russia released 74-year-old American prisoner Stephen Hubbard, who had been detained in Russia for more than four years. A video obtained by CNN shows Hubbard speaking with Witkoff at the airport in St. Petersburg. Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev also told media after the meeting that US-Russian economic cooperation would continue and that the recently announced diesel deal would go ahead despite European criticism.

The Trump administration has been stepping up diplomatic pressure this autumn, including waiving some sanctions on Russia and striking the diesel export deal — concessions aimed at drawing Moscow back to the table. Whether those moves will translate into Russian flexibility on the core terms of any settlement remains, for now, unanswered.

Why it matters — The competing summit formats reveal a fundamental divide over who gets to decide Ukraine's future — and whether Kyiv will have any say in the terms of a deal that ends the war on its territory.

Sources differ on Value of new proposals brought by Witkoff from Oslo: US and Ukraine made 'meaningful progress' in Norway and Ukraine brought forward new ideas; the two sides are in 'strong alignment' on next steps. (cnn.com) vs Kremlin aide Ushakov said the new approaches from Europeans and Kyiv 'contained little of actual value for resolving the Ukrainian crisis.' (cnn.com)

Reported by cnn.com, novayagazeta.eu, dw.com