Maine Senate race deadlocked at 49-49 as voters sour on Trump and ad fatigue sets in

With two weeks until Maine's November 3 Senate election, Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are deadlocked — each drawing 49 percent support among likely voters in a Fox News poll conducted October 16–20, the most recent survey taken after the candidates' October 15 debate. The race, rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, has emerged as one of a handful of contests that could determine which party controls the Senate.

The tie sits atop a deeply negative electorate. Only 12 percent of Maine likely voters say their family is better off financially than two years ago, according to the Fox News poll. President Donald Trump's job approval stands at just 37 percent, with 62 percent disapproving — including 54 percent who strongly disapprove and, notably, 2 in 10 Republicans. That environment creates a specific problem for Collins: 53 percent of voters are concerned she votes with Trump too much, while 46 percent are concerned Jackson is too liberal.

Trump's job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line.— Mikaela Linder, Beacon Research

First elected in 1997, Collins is Maine's longest-serving member of Congress and the longest-tenured Republican woman in the Senate, and she is now campaigning for a sixth term. She is the only Republican senator seeking re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024 — as Maine did, by 7 points — and no senator from either party holds a seat in a state that has so reliably voted against that senator's party at the presidential level. In 2020, she won re-election by nearly 9 points.

The enthusiasm gap is one of the sharpest warning signs for her campaign. Far more Democrats (79 percent) than Republicans (61 percent) say they are extremely interested in the election, an 18-point gap. Jackson leads by 16 points among that high-enthusiasm group. Among voters who describe themselves as 'certain' to vote, Jackson holds a 4-point edge, and he is ahead by 40 points among the roughly one in five Mainers who have already voted. Collins's best remaining terrain is Election Day itself: a slim majority of voters plan to vote then, and they favor her by 12 points.

Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage.— Mikaela Linder, Beacon Research

The coalition math cuts in competing directions. Collins holds a 6-point advantage with voters under 45, while Jackson leads by 3 points among those 45 and older. Women support Jackson by 5 points, men back Collins by 4. Education produces the widest gap: Jackson wins college-educated Mainers by 23 points, and Collins leads among those without a college degree by 16. She also leads in rural areas by 7 points, while Jackson carries the smaller suburban electorate by 18. For comparison, Collins won both rural voters and non-college voters by 18 points each in 2020, suggesting erosion in her traditional base.

Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception. GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas.— Daron Shaw, Shaw & Company Research

Independents remain a contested prize. The Fox News poll gives Collins a 13-point edge among independents in the Senate race, but a YouGov/CBS News poll found Jackson leading independents by 7 points, and a Suffolk University poll gave Collins a 3-point edge among that group. The divergence across surveys reflects how closely contested and volatile that slice of the electorate is.

The voters analysts watch most closely are ticket-splitters: people who backed Collins in past cycles but also voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. According to University of Maine at Farmington political science professor James Melcher, women who prioritize abortion rights and once backed Collins may now be pulling away in the wake of her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who later voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. "This race will look far more like 2020 than 2014," Melcher said. 'Collins lost a lot of Democrats and independents' in 2020, when her margin shrank from a 30-plus-point win in 2014 to 9 points.

Jackson would need to be able to make the case for his accomplishments in Maine state government, which he hasn't spent much time doing thus far.— Mark Brewer, professor of political science, University of Maine at Orono

Both candidates carry underwater favorability ratings. Views of Jackson are negative by 2 points (47 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable); Collins is negative by 4 points (47 percent to 51 percent). Party loyalty is roughly even, with 9 in 10 of each candidate's partisans backing them, and vote certainty is high on both sides — 92 percent for Jackson supporters, 90 percent for Collins supporters.

The broader ballot offers one more complication for Collins. Democrat Hannah Pingree holds a 10-point lead over Republican Bobby Charles in the gubernatorial contest — 49 percent to 39 percent — with independent Rick Bennett drawing 9 percent. Nearly one in five Collins supporters — 19 percent — peel off to either Bennett (11 percent) or Pingree (8 percent), while only 8 percent of Jackson supporters defect from Pingree. That split suggests Collins must assemble a coalition that crosses partisan lines even as Pingree consolidates the Democratic vote above her.

One historical caveat looms over the polling: in 2020, surveys consistently showed Collins trailing Democrat Sara Gideon, yet she won. Forecasters and analysts note that polling errors are not necessarily repeated cycle to cycle, but the question of whether a similar miss could occur again remains open as Election Day approaches.

The poll average across 11 surveys ending between September 22 and October 22 shows Jackson at 48.6 percent and Collins at 47.4 percent, according to VoteSee. Democrats view the seat as a must-win in their effort to take control of the Senate; 53 percent of Maine likely voters prefer a Democratic-led Senate versus 45 percent who want Republicans to remain in charge.

Why it matters — The Maine Senate race is one of the few contests that will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate, making every ticket-splitter, early ballot, and Election Day turnout decision in the state consequential for the country's legislative balance of power.

Sources differ on Collins vs. Jackson lead among independent voters: Collins +13 among independents (foxnews.com) vs Collins +3 among independents (47%–44%) (newsweek.com (Suffolk poll)) vs Jackson +7 among independents (53%–46%) (newsweek.com (YouGov/CBS poll))

Reported by pbs.org, foxnews.com, votesee.org, newsweek.com, showdownwire.com