Texas Senate race hits dead heat as Talarico and Paxton each draw 49% in new Fox News poll

Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are tied at 49% each among likely Texas voters, according to a Fox News poll released October 22, 2026 — a race that every major election forecaster now rates a toss-up, and one that could reshape control of the U.S. Senate.

The Fox News survey, conducted October 15–19 among 1,398 likely voters with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points, marks a shift from the outlet's September poll, when Talarico held a narrow 51–49% edge. Paxton has gained ground among conservatives, rural voters, and Republicans who previously backed incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, according to iHeart's KTRH.

The Fox result is not an outlier. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey conducted October 17–19 among 1,000 likely voters found Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%, with 5% undecided; when leaners were included, the margin tightened further to 49–48%. A University of Houston Hobby School poll fielded October 10–14 among 2,000 likely voters put Talarico ahead 48–46%. The PollingSource unweighted average of the three most recent scientific polls gives Talarico a 49.7–48.7% edge — a margin of one point.

Cook Political Report, Decision Desk, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race a toss-up, according to Ballotpedia. Inside Elections moved the contest from 'Tilt Republican' to 'Toss-up' in October.

The seat is open because four-term Republican incumbent John Cornyn lost the GOP primary runoff to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. In 2024, Republican Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred 53.1%–44.6%; in 2020, Cornyn beat Democrat M.J. Hegar 53.5%–43.9%.

The data suggest Democrats' chances are as good as — or better than — ever in the last three decades. History and logic suggest it's still worth being circumspect.— Aaron Blake, CNN

Paxton's personal favorability is a liability: the Fox News poll found his ratings underwater by 17 points, at 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable. More than half of Texans hold an unfavorable view of President Trump, according to the University of Houston Hobby School, just two years after Trump carried the state by more than 13 points. The Fox poll found 43% of Texans believe their personal finances are worse than two years ago, while just 20% say they are better off.

Despite those headwinds for Republicans, 51% of Texas likely voters in the Fox poll prefer Republican control of the U.S. Senate, compared with 47% who favor Democratic control — a structural advantage for Paxton. Party loyalty is asymmetric: 98% of Democrats back Talarico versus 90% of Republicans backing Paxton, according to KTRH.

The coalition math is complex. Talarico leads strongly among younger voters, Black voters, and urban voters — 60% of urban voters support him in the University of Houston poll. He draws 60% of independents versus 32% for Paxton in that same survey. Among Hispanics, 54% back Talarico and 40% back Paxton, according to the Hobby School, though the Emerson poll notes that third-party Libertarian Ted Brown's voters are 'primarily independents or Republicans,' meaning their final decision could determine the outcome.

Since August, Talarico's support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%. If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% on the final ballot, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans. If it holds, Talarico benefits.— Spencer Kimball, Executive Director, Emerson College Polling

Rural voters and white voters remain a Republican stronghold. The Hobby School found roughly 55% of white voters supporting Republican candidates statewide, while Gov. Greg Abbott draws 66% of rural voters compared with 27% for his Democratic opponent. Renée Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School, said turnout will be decisive.

High gas and diesel prices, inflation at the grocery store and an unpopular war all have created headwinds for Republicans. More than half of Texans say they have an unfavorable opinion of President Trump, just two years after he carried the state by more than 13 points. But it has been more than 30 years since a Democrat was elected to statewide office in Texas, and many voters remain loyal to the Republican party.— Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director, University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs

The money race has broken sharply in Talarico's favor. As of October 2026, Talarico had raised $68.6 million to Paxton's $9.25 million, according to Ballotpedia. Outside spending has been enormous on both sides: satellite groups had reported a combined $295 million in spending supporting or opposing the two candidates as of October 13, including $130 million spent to oppose Talarico, $92.1 million to support Paxton, $57.6 million to oppose Paxton, and $15.4 million to support Talarico.

The economy is the top issue for a plurality of Texas voters at 39%, up three points from September, according to Emerson, followed by immigration at 16% and threats to democracy at 13%. Voters whose top issue is the economy split nearly evenly: 47% support Paxton, 46% Talarico.

Early voting began October 19. Election Day is November 3, 2026. Republicans currently hold a 53–45 majority in the U.S. Senate, and 33 seats plus two special elections are on the ballot this cycle. Democrats hold 13 of the seats up for election; Republicans hold 22.

In the Texas governor's race, Republican Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52%–47% in the Fox News poll and 49%–45% in the Emerson poll, with Abbott drawing 51% to Hinojosa's 47% when leaners are included in the Emerson survey.

Why it matters — A Democratic win in Texas would be the party's first U.S. Senate victory there in nearly four decades and could flip the chamber's partisan balance in the 120th Congress.

Reported by foxnews.com, usatoday.com, 270towin.com, ballotpedia.org, pollingsource.com, uh.edu, emersoncollegepolling.com, ktrh.iheart.com