Cook Political Report shifts 19 House seats toward Democrats, says GOP path to majority 'evaporated'

The Cook Political Report shifted 19 House races toward Democrats on Friday and moved nothing toward Republicans — a lopsided update that its own analyst says signals the end of any realistic path for the GOP to hold its slim House majority.

Cook analyst Erin Covey wrote that Republicans' path to retaining their majority has 'all but evaporated,' and that the new question is 'how large Democrats' majority will be in 2027.' Cook now projects Democrats flipping a net 12 to 22 seats, which would give them a majority of between 227 and 237 seats when the next Congress convenes in January.

As a result of new polling and ad spending, we're moving another 19 races in Democrats' direction. Six districts — four of which are held by Republican incumbents — are moving from the Toss Up column to Lean Democrat. Two more open seats are moving from Lean Republican to Toss Up.— Erin Covey, Cook Political Report analyst

The six seats moving from Toss Up to Lean Democrat include districts held by Republican incumbents Reps. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Gabe Evans of Colorado, Jen Kiggans of Virginia, and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, according to The Hill.

Republicans currently hold 218 seats to Democrats' 214, meaning only a handful of pickups would shift control of the chamber. Cook's total ratings now show 186 seats as Solid Democratic and 168 as Solid Republican, with 17 seats remaining in the Toss Up category, according to Newsweek.

The update lands as Trump's approval rating has fallen to record lows ahead of the midterms, according to Newsweek. Historically, an unpopular president's party loses House seats in midterm elections — during Trump's first term in 2018, Democrats flipped more than 40 seats.

Some of the newly competitive districts are in territory that Trump carried by double digits in 2024, a detail that political scientists say reflects the depth of voter discontent.

The Democrats are not only competitive in places that have gone back and forth between the parties but also in what have been staunch Trump and Republican-supporting districts. This shows the depth of perceptions of the Trump administration's poor performance on affordability, inflation, and the Iran War—and also increasing perceptions of corruption.— Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science, Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs

Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Program at George Washington University, told Newsweek the forecasts signal the environment is 'looking really good for Democrats,' driven by positive polls and early voting numbers. He added that candidate quality is likely to be decisive for voters who have not yet made up their minds.

What we know about the people who make the decision in the past couple of weeks is that it is the characteristics of the candidates that are the explanatory factor in their vote, which is why we see so much mudslinging and attempts to negatively define these candidates at the end of the campaign.— Todd Belt, director, Political Management Program, George Washington University

Generic ballot polling — a broad measure of which party voters prefer for Congress — has shown Democrats with a substantial lead in recent surveys. A New York Times/Siena University poll of 3,494 likely voters conducted October 12–19 showed Democrats up 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points. A YouGov poll of 1,501 registered voters conducted October 19–20 also showed Democrats up 11 points among 'strict' likely voters. Echelon Insights gave Democrats a more modest 5-point edge, according to Newsweek.

Democrats are firmly on offense in the home stretch of the midterms, and we will win the House Majority in November.— Courtney Rice, communications director, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

Other forecasters are tracking a similar picture. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates 12 seats as toss-ups, while FiftyPlusOne classifies 204 seats as Safe Democratic against 141 Safe Republican, according to Newsweek. Newsweek reported it reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee for comment.

Why it matters — If Cook's projections hold, Democrats would flip the House majority in November, reversing Republican control and reshaping the legislative agenda for the final two years of Trump's term.

Reported by thehill.com, newsweek.com