Iran and US edge toward third round of war as civilians stockpile supplies and diplomacy stalls

In Tehran, a 70-year-old resident has charged every power bank in the house, stocked water, and lies awake each night wondering whether the bombing will resume before morning. Across the city, parents are deciding day by day whether to send children to school, businessmen are canceling trips in case airports close, and drivers are queuing at gas stations to fill their tanks. Nine months after the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran, the conflict has ground into a stalemate — and the anxiety of another round is now a daily condition of life for millions of Iranians.

The immediate trigger for the latest surge in fear is a convergence of military signals on both sides. Aboard warships that include the USS George Washington aircraft carrier strike group, sailors have been loading munitions and preparing aircraft for operations, The Wall Street Journal reported. A classified memorandum dated October 23 and addressed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio — first disclosed by Axios and subsequently confirmed by NBC News — concluded that Iranian plans to kill American personnel had progressed to an advanced stage. And on Friday, US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack told an interviewer: 'Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely.'

We may do another little Epic Fury. Or they'll agree.— Donald Trump, US President

Trump has not announced a decision to strike. White House advisers have held meetings on options for Iran, and while Trump said publicly he would not take new action before the midterm elections on November 3, several advisers told CNN privately they did not know whether that statement was definitive. US military officials have presented options including strikes on entrances and tunnels at deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities, including a site referred to as Pickaxe Mountain, as well as Kharg Island — the hub for Iranian crude exports — and Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz, according to NBC News as reported by Gulf News.

According to multiple US officials familiar with the matter, as reported by CNN, military planners have drawn up options that could involve deploying the GBU-43/B Ordnance Air Blast Bomb — the largest non-nuclear weapon in the US arsenal, known as the MOAB — against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites. Israel has pressed Washington for earlier strikes, though those efforts have so far been unsuccessful, CNN reported. Facing a tight election on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during the past week that the United States and Israel need to act together to bring down Iran's government. Netanyahu reportedly told US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whom he met on Monday, that he would prefer Iran to attack first.

Iran's response has been to escalate its own rhetoric to levels not previously heard in the conflict. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, said that if Iran were attacked again, it would strike oil facilities, undersea cables, data centers and AI facilities in as many as seven Gulf nations. According to The Hindu, at least seven major undersea data cables pass through or close to the Strait of Hormuz, linking Gulf states and South Asian countries.

We see the next conflict as an existential threat. The third war in two years means a threat to existence. Our strategy is 'zero red lines.'— Mehdi Mohammadi, adviser to Mohammad Ghalibaf

We break the temporal and spatial dimensions of the conflict. The war will continue longer and in a wider geographical area than the enemy anticipates.— Mehdi Mohammadi, adviser to Mohammad Ghalibaf

The IRGC's spokesperson, Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi, said Iran would 'achieve absolute victory in this apocalyptic war' if attacked, adding that the conflict would 'decide the fate' of other nations in the region — a reference to Gulf monarchies that Iran struck during the first two phases of the war. Major General Ali Abdollahi, Chief of the General Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, made an even stronger assertion, stating that American naval vessels would be barred from the Persian Gulf. According to The Hindu, he said: 'The US President must only dream of their military and army entering the Persian Gulf again. They will take this wish to their graves.'

The world will be amazed. We have new targets that have not yet been attacked.— Hossein Mohebbi, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson

The war is not over. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has prepared itself for a long-term war.— Hossein Mohebbi, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson

Iranian commanders have also signaled a shift toward a more offensive military doctrine, suggesting Iran may not wait to absorb a first strike. Social media accounts linked to the Revolutionary Guards reported last week that Iran held military exercises nationwide, among them a simultaneous launch of 30 ballistic missiles. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, told CNN that if Iran decided to use its new long-range missiles against Europe, potential targets could include US forces at airbases in England or the logistics hub at Ramstein, Germany — though Nadimi said Iran would likely reserve that option for the highest level of escalation. Earlier this month, the US relocated all long-range bombers based in the United Kingdom to home bases following an unspecified new threat; in the days before that relocation, British authorities made arrests tied to an alleged Iranian plot against the very airbase where those bombers had been stationed.

On the water, Iran's IRGC naval forces claimed to have simultaneously struck four commercial ships attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, and claimed three further ships were hit by mines in the strait. There was no independent verification of those claims, according to The Guardian. Brent crude was trading at $113.4 a barrel at the time of that report, and rose to $117 a barrel by Friday, according to The Hindu — reflecting how energy markets are pricing in the risk of a wider conflict.

A diplomatic path has not closed entirely. Tehran has indicated readiness to return to talks under a framework brokered by Pakistan, on the condition that Washington ends its naval blockade. Iranian and Pakistani intermediaries have once more examined a package deal under which Iran would receive billions of dollars in frozen assets in return for opening the strait, granting UN weapons inspectors access to its damaged nuclear sites, and transferring its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country. According to The Guardian, the foreign ministers of three European nations along with their counterparts from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt plan to convene in Istanbul to coordinate positions on the intertwined crises involving Iran, Yemen and Palestine. But negotiations between Tehran and Washington have stalled, and Iranian officials have said publicly they will not surrender to Trump's demands on the nuclear program.

For ordinary Iranians, the diplomatic maneuvering is background noise to a more immediate calculus. Iran's Red Crescent Society reported at least 1,900 civilians killed in 40 days of bombardment this year. The government has said war damages amount to approximately $300 billion. Sanctions and a US naval blockade have contributed to the currency collapsing against the dollar, and prices for some basic foods have risen more than 200%, according to reporting republished from The New York Times by Oman Observer. Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged that many Iranians are struggling for food.

What worries me and those around me most is the lack of money and simply surviving. Everyone is trying to find a way to make money and get by.— Behnam, 38-year-old musician in Tehran

The political divide inside Iran is also sharpening. Hard-line government supporters hold nightly rallies calling for escalation and revenge. But prominent politicians and reformist voices have publicly urged the government to avoid further military confrontation. Javad Emam of the main reformist party posted on social media: 'The responsibility for today's decision lies with you; the cost of war will be borne by the nation.' Separately, a 54-year-old veteran of the Iran-Iraq war, speaking to the Oman Observer, said that while he opposed any surrender by Iran, he was furious at the government's opacity and its inability to reach a peaceful resolution, adding: 'People are under enormous pressure and are being crushed by the economic siege.'

I would like to know exactly what else the US is planning to bomb? They couldn't even take (the Iranian leadership) out. You couldn't negotiate either. So, what's the point of starting another war?— Tehran resident, mother of two, speaking anonymously

Speaking to CNN, Ali Vaez, deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at International Crisis Group, said Iranian military commanders are readying themselves for what they see as an unavoidable return to fighting, even as they seek to discourage Washington by making clear what the costs would be. Reza Nasri, an international lawyer close to the Iranian foreign ministry, wrote in The Guardian that a third wave of war 'would not stay contained,' foreseeing strikes on power grids, desalination plants, refineries and ports throughout the region, tens of millions of people losing access to water and electricity, a refugee flow toward Europe, the complete closure of Hormuz, and a global economic downturn.

According to The Guardian, Trump has pulled back from ordering a new strike on Iran on seven separate occasions over the past four months. NBC News reported that reductions in the US diplomatic and military footprint at bases across the Middle East bear a resemblance to the precautionary drawdowns that preceded the original US-Israel military campaign against Iran in February. Non-emergency staff and dependents at the US embassy in Saudi Arabia have been ordered to depart, and the State Department has acknowledged that it has temporarily reduced personnel at diplomatic posts in the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Lebanon.

Why it matters — A third round of US-Iran fighting could close the Strait of Hormuz, spike global oil prices, and — by Iran's own declared doctrine — expand the conflict to Gulf infrastructure, undersea internet cables, and potentially European military bases, with consequences for energy markets, internet connectivity and regional stability far beyond Iran's borders.

Sources differ on Whether the southern transit route through the Strait of Hormuz is open for commercial traffic: US officials claim the southern route, protected by the US Navy, is open for commercial traffic. (thehindu.com) vs Iran says US warships will not be allowed to enter the Persian Gulf; IRGC claims to have struck commercial ships attempting to navigate the strait. (thehindu.com)

Sources differ on Whether Trump's statement that he would not act before the midterm elections is definitive: Trump said publicly he would not take new actions before the midterm elections. (cnn.com) vs Several White House advisers told CNN privately they did not know whether that statement was definitive or could change before election day. (cnn.com)

Reported by omanobserver.om, cnn.com, gulfnews.com, nytimes.com, thehindu.com, theguardian.com