Canada eyes energy independence as Ontario quietly imports 600 MW from New York this winter

Ontario Premier Doug Ford spent much of the past year threatening to cut off electricity exports to the United States as a trade-war weapon. This winter, power will be flowing the other way: Ontario's grid operator has quietly signed a six-month deal to import 600 megawatts of electricity from a U.S. company — and starting November 1, every Ontario household will see changes to their hydro bill.

On October 1, Ontario's grid-balancing agency, the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), signed a six-month agreement with U.S.-based Alpha Generation to import 600 MW of power from New York, with deliveries starting November 1. The IESO describes the deal as routine planning to cover maintenance outages and winter peak demand. Power Advisory, an energy consultancy, noted that bilateral deals of this kind have not been common practice in Ontario.

Very ironic.— Jack Gibbons, Chair, Ontario Clean Air Alliance

According to the IESO's own reliability outlook, the shortfall stems from a string of nuclear outages, among them the closure of Pickering's 'B' units beginning this month, which has trimmed available domestic supply. The agency's annual standby-supply auction also fell short, securing 1,125 MW against a target of 1,200 MW for winter 2026–27. The auction's winter capacity price reached $725 per megawatt per business day, the highest on record in Ontario, according to Power Advisory.

The IESO stresses that Ontario remains a substantial net exporter: the province is currently exporting roughly seven times as much electricity as it imported across all of 2025. But the optics are awkward given Ford's rhetoric. As recently as March 2025, the premier said he would 'not hesitate to cut the electricity off completely' if the U.S. escalated trade pressure.

The cross-border electricity relationship runs deep. The U.S. Northeast relies on Canadian power imports for grid reliability.

For Ontario households, the more immediate question is what happens to their bills on November 1. The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) is lowering rates across all three pricing plans. Under time-of-use pricing, the off-peak rate will fall to 9.1 cents per kilowatt hour from 9.8 cents, while the on-peak rate will decline to 18.9 cents from 20.3 cents. Customers on tiered pricing will pay 11.2 cents per kWh for their first 1,000 kWh each month, compared with the current 12 cents. The ultra-low overnight plan charges 3.7 cents from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m., but 37.7 cents on weekdays from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m.

Those lower rates are partially offset by a reduction in the Ontario Electricity Rebate, which drops to 15.7 percent from 23.5 percent. A household consuming 700 kWh per month can expect the rebate to amount to roughly $23. The OEB anticipates that overall bills will continue climbing at about the same rate seen in prior years, with the price reductions largely cancelling out the effect of the smaller rebate.

The cost of the Alpha Generation import contract has not been publicly disclosed. Capacity costs of this kind are folded into overall system costs that ratepayers ultimately bear, but the IESO notes its entire 2025 capacity auction represents about 1 percent of total system costs. Whether short-term import deals like this become a recurring feature — and what they ultimately cost consumers — will depend on how the IESO's next capacity auction performs and whether the nuclear outage schedule eases.

Why it matters — The same cross-border electricity grid that Canada has threatened to weaponize in trade disputes is one Ontario quietly depends on this winter — and the long-term plan to build east-west Canadian links won't be ready for years, leaving both countries exposed in the meantime.

Reported by forbes.com, ca.finance.yahoo.com