Pentagon readies Iran strike options for after US midterms as Tehran vows wider retaliation

The U.S. military has prepared detailed options for renewed strikes against Iran, with planning focused on action after the November 3 midterm elections — even as President Donald Trump has left open the possibility of moving sooner, and Iran has warned that any new attack will trigger a far broader response than before.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees American forces in the Middle East, has presented several strike options to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, according to reporting by The Hill and the Sydney Morning Herald, which cited U.S. officials and others briefed on the deliberations. Among the potential targets are Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and its arsenal of missiles and drones. Both the U.S. and Israeli militaries have also drafted plans specifically targeting Iran's nuclear program, including a deeply buried site Iranians call Kooh Kolang — referred to in U.S. planning as Pickaxe Mountain.

The preparations do not constitute an order to attack. No final decision has been made, and Trump has repeatedly vetoed plans for a return to major combat operations this year, including earlier this month when U.S. and Israeli forces were reportedly close to ready, according to the Sydney Morning Herald. A White House official told that outlet that the administration does not comment on military plans "that may or may not exist," and said Trump was keeping all options open in order to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Trump's own public signals have been contradictory. Speaking at a rally on Friday, he referred to the possibility of another limited operation using the codename of the earlier U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran that began on February 28, and the following day suggested a strike could come as soon as "tomorrow," while also floating the possibility of a "big, beautiful" agreement with Tehran, according to Al Jazeera.

This week, Hegseth traveled to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and discuss the possibility of new strikes, U.S. officials told the Sydney Morning Herald. Both the U.S. and Israeli militaries have also stepped up exercises, flying planes over Iraq to practice strike maneuvers. Washington is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group — the USS Theodore Roosevelt — to the Middle East by the end of November, along with approximately 10,000 additional soldiers and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, according to Al Jazeera. Officials say the full complement of military assets will not be in place until early November.

Some U.S. planners believe a concentrated three-day campaign could inflict enough economic damage to force Iranian concessions on its nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Sydney Morning Herald. But Iran's negotiators have so far refused to make concessions on the nuclear issue, insisting on deferring it to later in talks. And the first phase of intense U.S.-Israeli strikes, which ran from February through April, drove up global energy prices and inflation, eroded regional security, and severely strained the Pentagon's supply of missile interceptors — outcomes that give some officials pause.

At this point in the war, what is clear is that the conventional military campaign waged to date, and the current punishing economic sanctions and American naval blockade, have not brought the regime back to the negotiating table in a meaningful way.— Dana Stroul, former Pentagon top Middle East policy official, Biden administration; now Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Iran has responded to the mounting pressure with a significant rhetorical and doctrinal shift. On Wednesday, Iran announced what it described as a move toward an 'offensive' military doctrine. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Hossein Mohebi stated that the country's defense posture had changed: "Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive." The warning explicitly raises the prospect of strikes on countries hosting bases used in U.S. attacks.

Iranian officials have also warned they will expand their targets beyond commercial ships and energy infrastructure to include data centers and undersea internet cables in the Gulf, according to the Sydney Morning Herald. Citing Iranian security officials, Reuters reported that Tehran has drawn up contingency plans to strike undersea communications cables in the Gulf should U.S. and Israeli attacks resume, according to Al Jazeera. Separately, Iran's army announced Sunday that it had brought down a U.S.-developed LUCAS drone above the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

With more than 120 attacks recorded so far, October has surpassed every previous month as the deadliest for ships since the war began in February, according to Al Jazeera. Iranian officials also claimed that seven oil tankers caught fire or sustained damage in and around the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week.

A Friday intelligence memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran had "substantially increased efforts to target US personnel," with lethal plots advancing to "advanced stages" in the Middle East and elsewhere, according to Al Jazeera. The State Department has ordered staffing reductions at several regional embassies and, separately, ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a dual tone on Saturday, accusing Washington of derailing negotiations — 'We were having negotiations, the cowards [Americans] messed everything up' — while also saying efforts to reach an agreement should continue, according to Al Jazeera.

Israel's election on Tuesday adds another layer of uncertainty. If Netanyahu loses, he would become a caretaker prime minister, making it difficult to launch a war, according to analysts cited by the Sydney Morning Herald. Some analysts believe Netanyahu could use the prospect of an imminent joint strike to pressure rivals into a unity government — a tactic he employed after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Israeli political commentator Mazal Mualem, speaking to the Sydney Morning Herald, said: "If Iran attacks, that's one thing, but initiating an offensive strike would be extremely difficult for him."

With Trump, I think he is always keeping options on the table, but I think this particular drawing up of plans is an immediate posturing deterrent, but also a very real option after the midterms.— Julie Norman, Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Iran is also drawing up its own target lists to include energy infrastructure and US-aligned states. So I would say both parties are certainly very prepared for another round of escalation and projecting preparedness to each other. In the meantime, there is a very high risk of miscalculation by either side, a very high risk of rapid escalation.— Julie Norman, Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Some U.S. officials say targeting may avoid refineries and oil infrastructure because Trump is eager to prevent further rises in gas prices, according to the Sydney Morning Herald. Last week, Trump said he was weighing the use of the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Ordnance Air Blast bomb — known as the MOAB, or 'Mother of All Bombs' — against Pickaxe Mountain. Weapons specialists, however, say the MOAB explodes above ground and would not likely penetrate a deeply buried site.

Why it matters — A renewed U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran would likely spike global energy prices, risk a wider regional war involving U.S. allies and bases, and test whether eight months of conflict and sanctions can actually alter Iran's nuclear calculus — with no guaranteed outcome on any front.

Sources differ on Whether a renewed military campaign would succeed in forcing Iranian concessions: Some U.S. planners believe an intensive three-day campaign could push Iran's economy over the brink and force diplomatic concessions. (smh.com.au) vs Dana Stroul and other Western officials say Iran's government has so far weathered economic pressure, and neither Trump nor Netanyahu has made a compelling case for how more war would change the strategic dilemma. (smh.com.au)

Reported by thehill.com, aljazeera.com, smh.com.au