Texas early voting tops 4 million ballots with 8 days left before November 3 midterms

Texas has crossed 4.17 million early ballots cast with eight days still remaining in the early voting window, according to data tracked by Call the Map and On Point Politics.

As of October 26, 2026, the official tally stands at 4,171,837 ballots: 198,922 returned by mail and 3,972,915 cast in person, according to On Point Politics, which draws its counts from civicAPI, a service that collects figures directly from state election offices. Call the Map, tracking the same data stream, recorded a slightly earlier snapshot of 198,798 mail ballots and 3,961,668 in-person votes.

In-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail voting in Texas requires a qualifying reason — being 65 or older, or being away from one's county, among others — which explains why in-person ballots account for more than 95 percent of the total so far.

Major counties are driving the volume. Some large counties recorded high first-day totals that exceeded prior midterm opening-day figures, according to local reporting.

The raw numbers, however, come with a significant caveat: Texas does not publish the party registration of its early voters. The state does not register voters by party at all, so any partisan breakdown of who is casting these ballots relies entirely on modeled estimates rather than official data.

On Point Politics constructs its party estimates from county-level results and voter demographics, using a model built on 1,152 voter types defined by age, race, education, party history, 2022 and 2024 vote history, and Trump approval ratings. Some analyses show stronger participation or swings toward Democratic-leaning voters in suburban areas compared to 2022 — but analysts caution those readings are model outputs, not voter file counts.

The stakes shaping this turnout are clear. The U.S. Senate race pits a Democratic candidate against Republican Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, in what forecasters describe as a competitive contest. A governor's race is also on the ballot. Some trackers rate the early vote as slightly favorable to Democrats, though Election Day voting — historically Republican-leaning in Texas — is expected to be decisive, and analysts say it is too early for firm predictions.

On Point Politics notes its forecast already carries an early-vote correction of D +0.27 percentage points built into its baseline model. The site's benchmark analysis is designed to show how far the current early-vote composition would need to deviate from expectations for either party to significantly outperform or underperform the forecast — a tool for tracking movement rather than declaring a winner.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early voting continues through October 30.

Why it matters — With more than 4 million ballots already in and two competitive statewide races on the line, Texas's early-vote surge is the clearest signal yet of elevated midterm engagement — but because the state releases no party data, the partisan story won't be confirmed until Election Day results come in.

Reported by callthemap.com, houstonchronicle.com, rawstory.com, onpointpolitics.us