Hassett says US-Canada trade deal is 'very close' — Ottawa says don't hold your breath

Two governments, one trade dispute, and two very different stories about how close it is to ending. On Sunday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the United States and Canada are "very close to finally having a deal" on trade — yet Canadian officials, speaking the same day, indicated they expect no agreement to materialize before the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections.

I think it's very close to finally having a deal on that. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been talking to his Canadian counterparts all week.— Kevin Hassett, White House National Economic Council Director

Also on Sunday, while campaigning in Michigan, President Trump echoed that optimism, telling Detroit's Fox 2 channel that "we're getting close to a deal, and a deal could happen that's going to be very good for everybody," according to Bloomberg. He suggested a deal could arrive 'probably a couple of months' out — then added it 'could be before the actual election.'

Canada's response was measured. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc's office said the country 'remains in constructive dialogue' with the U.S. and stands ready to work 'in good faith,' but LeBlanc himself has been blunt about the limits of that goodwill.

We're not going to rush into some particular circumstance and … agree to something that we don't think is in Canada's sovereign interest or economic interest.— Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's Minister Responsible for U.S. Trade Negotiations

According to Conservative Daily News, CBC News reported last week, citing three sources, that Ottawa has told industry groups a deal before the midterms is not anticipated. A U.S. official speaking anonymously to Bloomberg said prospects remain unclear because Washington does not believe Canada is offering enough yet.

Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with Trump by phone on Oct. 21 and, according to reports, said he is "ready to sit down and negotiate when the U.S. is" — but only "for a deal that's in the interests of Canadians." No agreement came from that call, and it is not clear whether formal negotiations have resumed since, according to Conservative Daily News.

The backdrop to Sunday's statements is a tariff war that escalated sharply after U.S.-Canada talks collapsed in August. Invoking Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, the Trump administration placed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods. Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion in American exports. The White House has framed its tariffs as a response to Canada's 'discriminatory treatment' of U.S. goods after Ottawa walked away from what it described as a near-final deal.

Two days before Hassett's Sunday appearance, the Trump administration issued a proclamation adjusting which Canadian goods face the 50% tariff — a move with a clear political dimension. Effective Oct. 30, the order removes plywood sheets, bleached paper, cartons, and specialized agricultural machinery from the tariff list, while adding valves, carpets, and waste products. Senator Susan Collins, a Maine Republican facing a competitive reelection race, had lobbied for relief for Maine's blueberry, potato, and apple growers, according to reports.

President Trump has put the citizens of Maine first.— Kevin Hassett, White House National Economic Council Director

In a Fox News appearance, Hassett said supporting Maine and Alaska fisheries had been "almost above everything else that we've done at the National Economic Council" — a remark Bloomberg described as a candid window into White House priorities heading into the final stretch before the midterms. The administration also unveiled a broader 'America First Seafood Strategy' on Friday and announced the USDA's first-ever Office of Seafood, created in April.

Collins has publicly touted her role in securing the tariff reductions. Her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, was less impressed. Bloomberg reported that Jackson took to social media Friday to say Collins "wants credit for bringing a cup of water to put out the fire," contending she acted only because her seat is in jeopardy.

Collins is not the only Republican feeling the strain. On Meet the Press Sunday, Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers said he takes issue with "some of the Canadian tariffs" while choosing his words carefully, telling the program it is "better to have somebody that can work to that conclusion than just go back to poke him in the eye and increase our costs all across the state," according to Conservative Daily News.

Hassett attributed earlier delays in negotiations partly to Canadian political events, including elections and what he described as a vote on Alberta secession, which he said had made talks 'impossible.' With those events past, he said talks are now 'gathering steam.'

Casting a shadow over any near-term agreement is a harder deadline: Trump has threatened to push tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel to 50% on Jan. 1, 2027. According to Conservative Daily News, LeBlanc has pointed out that the administration has not yet taken formal steps toward that escalation.

Why it matters — A US-Canada trade deal would end a tariff war costing both economies billions of dollars, but the gap between American optimism and Canadian caution — sharpened by US midterm politics — means the timeline remains genuinely uncertain.

Sources differ on How close a US-Canada trade deal actually is: Hassett: 'Very close to finally having a deal'; Trump: could happen before Nov. 3 election or within 'a couple of months' (unionleader.com) vs Ottawa told industry groups it does not expect a deal before Nov. 3 midterms; US official says prospects unclear as Canada not offering enough (conservativedailynews.com / unionleader.com)

Reported by bloomberg.com, conservativedailynews.com, unionleader.com