Israel votes in first election since Oct. 7, with Netanyahu's future and country's direction at stake

Israelis went to the polls Tuesday in the country's first national election since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023 — a vote that functions as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership through three years of war and one of the most consequential security failures in Israel's history. The result may not be known for weeks.

Polls show neither Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc nor the opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is likely to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset. Most surveys put Netanyahu's bloc at 49 to 55 seats and the opposition fragmented across a wide ideological range — meaning election night may launch Israel's next political crisis rather than resolve the current one, according to CNN.

It looks like an indecisive outcome is the most likely outcome.— Yohanan Plesner, President, Israel Democracy Institute

Likud, led by Netanyahu, and Yashar, a new centrist party headed by former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Eisenkot, are the two largest parties in the race. The latest Channel 12 opinion poll puts Eisenkot's Yashar first with 23 seats against Likud's 21, though the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 projects Likud at 30 seats and Eisenkot at around 20, according to CNN. When voters are asked directly who would make the better prime minister, Eisenkot has consistently held a lead over Netanyahu in head-to-head polling.

Netanyahu is seeking to rebuild a coalition similar to his outgoing government — the first in decades to serve a full four-year term — which relied on far-right partners Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir and two ultra-Orthodox parties. He is making two core arguments to voters: that he alone can assemble a government without depending on Arab parties, and that Israel's military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and against Iran are unfinished business that demands his continued leadership, according to CBS News.

He has also leaned heavily on his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, who last week offered a full-throated endorsement and warned that if Netanyahu loses, America would be 'not inclined' to continue the joint war against Iran that the two men launched together. Netanyahu has since argued that only he can work with Trump to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon — a prospect many Israelis view as an existential threat. To drive that message home over the weekend, Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image depicting a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv on social media, according to CBS News.

If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.— Donald Trump, U.S. President

Having lost his son and two nephews during their military service in Gaza, Eisenkot is campaigning on themes of accountability and national unity. His key campaign promise is to launch a state inquiry into the intelligence and security failures that allowed the October 7 attack — something Netanyahu has blocked. According to CBS News, he has accused Netanyahu of relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies, and threats. Women make up roughly half of Yashar's candidate list, a sharp contrast to the male-dominated Netanyahu coalition.

This time, it won't work for him.— Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar party leader, responding to Netanyahu's Iran rhetoric

The opposition is deeply fragmented beyond Eisenkot. Sitting to his right are former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, while the Democrats party, led by Yair Golan, occupies the space to his left. With ambitions of their own for the premiership, neither Bennett nor Liberman has thrown his support behind Eisenkot. According to CNN, any alternative government would likely need the support or abstention of Arab parties — and several opposition leaders have already ruled out any such cooperation.

Israel's electoral system allocates Knesset seats through proportional representation. Parties must clear a 3.25% vote threshold to enter parliament. Outright majorities being uncommon, the president turns to whichever Knesset member appears best positioned to put together a 61-seat majority and tasks that person with forming a government. Should successive attempts at coalition-building collapse, the country can be sent back to the polls.

Analysts say that with neither bloc on course for a comfortable win, the result could turn on the fine margins — chiefly which small parties manage to clear the 3.25% threshold and how many votes are effectively wasted on those that do not. According to CNN, several small parties within Netanyahu's coalition face that risk, among them Smotrich's Religious Zionism and a new right-wing party headed by retired general Ofer Winter.

Arab voter turnout could be pivotal. Palestinian citizens of Israel make up roughly 20% of the population but have historically voted at lower rates than the national average — 53.2% in the 2022 election compared to a general turnout of 70.6%, according to CNN. Pollsters expect Arab turnout to exceed 60% this cycle, which would raise the effective threshold and make it harder for small parties to survive. CBS News notes that higher Arab turnout makes it less likely Netanyahu can form a coalition within his current configuration.

The ultra-Orthodox military conscription dispute is another live fault line. According to CNBC, while military service is mandatory for most Jewish, Druze and Circassian Israelis from the age of 18, ultra-Orthodox men have largely been shielded from that obligation — a contentious legal and political issue that has put pressure on Netanyahu's own coalition. Yashar has put forward a proposal to bring both ultra-Orthodox and Arab communities into compulsory military service.

Beyond security, the economic toll of prolonged war is a leading concern, particularly for younger voters. According to László Csicsmann, a Middle East expert at Corvinus University of Budapest, speaking to CNBC, military spending now accounts for roughly 8% of Israel's gross domestic product, and virtually every family has seen a soldier or reservist pulled away from work for months at a time. The latest Channel 12 poll found 21% of Israelis rank the economy and cost of living as their top concern, according to CNN.

Israel has been at war since October 7, 2023, and the so-called 'seven-front war' launched by Netanyahu has undoubtedly worn down Israeli society. The side that can better convince voters that it can protect the population is likely to win.— László Csicsmann, Middle East expert, Corvinus University of Budapest

Analysts caution that a change in prime minister would not necessarily mean a dramatic shift in Israel's foreign policy posture. Farzan Sabet, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, told CNBC that the main blocs competing for power are quite hawkish on security and would have comparable policies on confronting Iran and Hezbollah. That said, Sabet added, a government opposed to Netanyahu would probably prefer to review the Israeli strategy towards Tehran before pursuing any major escalation, and might take fewer actions in the West Bank and crack down on settler violence against Palestinians there.

If no majority emerges from Tuesday's vote — the most likely scenario according to most analysts — Israel faces a range of outcomes: protracted coalition negotiations, a minority government, a unity government spanning ideological lines, or another election entirely. Netanyahu could remain as caretaker prime minister in the interim, extending a tenure that has already made him Israel's longest-serving leader.

Why it matters — The outcome will determine whether Israel continues on its current nationalist, religious trajectory or shifts course — and could reshape how the country manages its wars in Gaza and against Iran, its relationship with the United States, and its deepening international isolation.

Sources differ on Projected Knesset seats for Likud: 21 seats (Channel 12 poll (via cnn.com)) vs 30 seats (Channel 14 poll (via cnn.com))

Sources differ on Projected Knesset seats for Eisenkot's Yashar: 23 seats (Channel 12 poll (via cnn.com)) vs ~20 seats (Channel 14 poll (via cnn.com))

Reported by pbs.org, cbsnews.com, cnbc.com, reuters.com, cnn.com