Israel votes at record turnout — and wakes up to a deadlock

Israelis woke Wednesday morning to the result their fractured politics almost guaranteed: no winner. Exit polls released after polls closed at 10 p.m. Tuesday show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc tied with the opposition 'Change Bloc' led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot — 51 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset, with 61 needed to form a majority government. Voter participation reached above 77% of those eligible — a level Israel's central elections committee said had not been seen in over two decades and roughly seven points above the 2022 figure.

The election, Israel's first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, had been framed by many voters as a referendum on accountability for the deadliest attack in Israel's history. Instead of delivering a clear answer, it produced a deadlock that could take weeks to resolve — and may not be resolved at all without another round of elections.

Likud is the largest party in Israel.— Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister

Netanyahu made that claim to supporters at a post-election rally in Jerusalem just after 3 a.m., insisting official results would bear him out. He called for the formation of a 'strong, right-wing national government' and declared that any government relying on the support of Palestinian parties must not be formed.

The Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu's service as Israel's prime minister … a worthy leader would have accepted the people's non-confidence and announced today his retirement from politics.— Gadi Eisenkot, Opposition leader

Eisenkot, speaking to supporters in Tel Aviv, also warned Netanyahu not to 'use Israel's security for political ends' — a pointed reference to fears that the prime minister could exploit the post-election uncertainty to launch a new attack on Iran.

The wildcard in any coalition math is the Arab parties. Arab political groupings — the Joint List and Ra'am — are on course to sharply expand their presence in the Knesset, with projections putting their combined total at as many as 18 seats, up from 10. According to the Guardian, if Eisenkot falls short of a majority, he would be obliged to open talks with those parties to form a government, a scenario Netanyahu has explicitly ruled out for himself. Eisenkot could also attempt to govern as a minority government through informal, vote-by-vote agreements.

Israeli exit polls are notoriously imprecise and are often revised after publication, with final counts frequently swinging by several seats. With more than 30% of votes tabulated as of early Wednesday morning, counting was still ongoing. Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister during any prolonged negotiations, and a further election remains possible if no coalition emerges, according to Reuters.

The campaign that preceded Tuesday's vote was among the bitterest in Israel's recent history. Facing calls to take personal responsibility for the security failures of Oct. 7, Netanyahu refused, and he pushed back against demands for an independent state commission of inquiry, instead backing a politically appointed investigation that many bereaved families strongly opposed. With just two days remaining before voters went to the polls, he circulated an AI-generated image showing a nuclear explosion above Tel Aviv, framing it as a warning about the threat Iran would pose should Israelis choose a leader incapable of standing up to Tehran.

If you nevertheless decide to vote again for the man who brought disaster upon us and his accomplices, I have one personal request: Don't come here anymore.— Shir Shai, sister of soldier Yaron Shai, killed on Oct. 7

Shai delivered those words over her brother's grave at his memorial ceremony on October 7. Other bereaved families arrived at a different conclusion, arguing that Netanyahu deserved credit for holding firm across years of war on multiple fronts and placing the primary blame for failing to foresee the Hamas assault on Israel's military and intelligence establishment.

The polarization on display Tuesday has roots that predate Oct. 7. Prior to the attacks, Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul drew hundreds of thousands of Israelis into the streets, with critics contending it threatened the foundations of the country's democracy. The dispute extended into the armed forces, with reservists threatening to withhold their volunteer service. According to Fox News, some critics contended that the upheaval signaled vulnerability to Israel's adversaries, though how much it shaped Hamas's decision to carry out the attack remains a matter of debate.

Election night itself carried its own tensions. Netanyahu and several other parties made a last-ditch effort to keep polling stations open beyond the 10 p.m. deadline, which was rejected by the Central Elections Committee. The prime minister then suggested publicly that the 'left and Arabs' were attempting to steal the election — a claim the committee rejected, saying it had seen no evidence of systematic tampering, according to the Guardian. Israeli police had prepared for possible unrest after polls closed, and experts had warned about potential disputes over the legitimacy of results.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have staked rival claims to a path toward forming a government, according to Reuters. With final counting still ongoing and the situation fluid, the shape of Israel's next government — or whether one can be formed at all — remains unresolved.

Why it matters — With no bloc holding a majority and Arab parties potentially holding the balance of power, Israel faces weeks of coalition negotiations — or another election — at a moment when decisions about war, security, and accountability for Oct. 7 remain unresolved.

Sources differ on Whether pre-election political turmoil influenced Hamas's decision to attack on Oct. 7: Some critics argue the judicial overhaul protests and reservist threats projected weakness that emboldened Hamas. (foxnews.com) vs The extent to which internal turmoil influenced Hamas's decision remains disputed. (foxnews.com)

Sources differ on Responsibility for Oct. 7 security failures: Some bereaved families hold Netanyahu personally responsible and oppose his re-election. (foxnews.com) vs Other bereaved families credit Netanyahu with standing firm and say the military and intelligence establishment bears principal responsibility. (foxnews.com)

Reported by foxnews.com, ft.com, reuters.com, theguardian.com