Seven Senate toss-ups will decide if Democrats can break Republican control next week

Democrats enter the final week before the midterm elections as heavy favorites to retake the House — but control of the Senate will almost certainly be settled by seven races the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates as pure toss-ups, in states where Donald Trump won six of seven in 2024, five of them by double digits.

Democrats currently need a net gain of four seats to retake the Senate from a Republican majority that stands at 53-47. The party has a clear lead in only one Republican-held state outside the toss-up list: North Carolina, where former Democratic governor Roy Cooper is favored to defeat Republican Michael Whatley for an open seat. The seven toss-up states — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas — are where the majority will actually be won or lost.

Washington Post averages of recent high-quality polls show Democrats leading in all seven races, but most of those leads fall within the margin of error. Republicans are outspending Democrats in the majority of the contests, with especially large financial advantages in Texas and Ohio. The stakes are binary: if Democrats sweep all seven, they would secure their largest Senate majority since the Obama administration; if Republicans hold all seven, they keep their current majority — absorbing a likely North Carolina loss by flipping Michigan.

The battlefield heavily favors Republicans on paper. Trump carried six of the seven toss-up states in 2024. The lone exception is Maine, where Kamala Harris won by seven points in 2024 — yet Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term there and Republicans are outspending Democrats by $11.8 million in the home stretch, according to AdImpact. Collins defeated a well-funded Democratic challenge in 2020 by nine points even as Joe Biden carried the state. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer recruited Democratic Gov. Janet Mills to run this cycle, but she suspended her campaign before the primary after running out of money. Democrats still lead by two points in polling averages.

The most unexpected battleground is Kansas, where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1932. Neither party considered the race competitive earlier this year. But Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who leads the state's largest church and is running as a moderate, has pulled within one point of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in polling averages — and Democrats are outspending Republicans there by $18.3 million, one of only two toss-up states where they hold a financial edge. Republicans have attacked Hamilton over past statements supporting Black Lives Matter and a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, arguing his moderate positioning is a disguise.

In Alaska — where Trump won by 13 points in 2024 and the state last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 2008 — Schumer described his January recruitment of former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola as 'the last piece of the puzzle' to put Democrats in position to retake the chamber. Peltola is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is seeking a third term, in a state hit hard by rising diesel prices tied to the war with Iran and broader cost-of-living pressures. Democrats lead by five points in polling averages, the largest margin among the seven toss-ups, though Republicans hold a $9.5 million spending advantage. The race was further complicated in May when a retired teacher named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. entered under Alaska's unique top-four electoral system; Republicans have accused him of attempting to confuse voters and benefit Peltola, which he has denied. The Justice Department filed a lawsuit last week seeking to block certification of results if the incumbent senator loses, a move Democrats have promised to fight.

The last piece of the puzzle.— Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader, describing Peltola's recruitment in January

Iowa, which Barack Obama carried twice but has shifted sharply toward Republicans in the Trump era, features Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek for an open seat. Both candidates have centered their campaigns on bipartisanship — Hinson pledging in a debate to push back on Trump when she believes he is wrong, Turek running ads highlighting his votes with Republicans in the state legislature. The race has turned negative: Turek has attacked Hinson over her family's growing net worth since her election to Congress, while Hinson has criticized Turek for missing legislative votes. Democrats lead by two points and hold a $12.9 million spending advantage, according to AdImpact.

The toss-up list does not include every competitive race. New Hampshire, an open seat Republicans are targeting, is not rated a toss-up because Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has led consistently in polls. Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Republican Rep. Mike Collins, is also not rated a toss-up — Ossoff is favored there.

The outcome of these seven races will directly shape the final two years of Trump's presidency, determining whether Democrats can use Senate confirmation power and legislative leverage to constrain his agenda or whether Republicans consolidate control of both chambers.

Why it matters — Whichever party controls the Senate after November 3 will hold the power to confirm or block Trump's nominees and shape the legislative agenda for the final two years of his presidency.

Sources differ on Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s motive for entering the Alaska race: Republicans accuse him of trying to confuse voters and help Peltola. (adn.com) vs Sullivan Jr. has denied the accusation. (adn.com)

Reported by washingtonpost.com, adn.com, inquirer.com