Hochul and Blakeman Race Across New York as Early Voting Surges Past 2022 Pace

New York's early voting period opened Saturday with turnout nearly double what it was four years ago — and both candidates for governor immediately fanned out across New York City, each trying to bank votes in the same Democratic stronghold through sharply different pitches.

About 265,000 people voted statewide on the first day, including 87,000 in New York City alone, according to state elections officials. Through the first two days, the city recorded over 165,000 ballots — almost double the 97,155 cast in the same window in 2022, when Gov. Kathy Hochul won her first full term by six percentage points. Early voting runs through November 1; Election Day is November 3.

Hochul spent the opening weekend campaigning alongside New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, appearing with him Friday evening at McCarren Park on the Williamsburg-Greenpoint border and again Sunday at a labor canvass kickoff at Medgar Evers College in Crown Heights. The alliance is deliberate: 40 percent of registered New York State voters live in New York City, and Hochul's advisers have expressed concern that any drop-off in enthusiasm among Mamdani's younger, more progressive base could dampen her margins.

To me, there are political events where we have to go to, it's a little more difficult to be up there on that stage. Today is not one of those. The choice is simple for me and for every New Yorker.— Zohran Mamdani, New York City Mayor

Mamdani told reporters Saturday he was 'excited' to have voted for Hochul on the Working Families Party line rather than the Democratic Party line. Hochul, who cast her own early ballot in Buffalo on Saturday during a day of upstate campaigning, said she was fine with the mayor's implicit encouragement to vote on a third-party line: 'OK by me, as long as they vote,' she told reporters, according to City & State NY.

I want to thank our mayor for all he has done for the city in a relatively short time. The difference that you have made through your leadership and your willingness to stand up and fight for our families … I cannot think of a better partner than our mayor, Zohran Mamdani.— Kathy Hochul, Governor of New York

Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman ran a counter-program he called a 'three-borough rally blitz,' focusing on Staten Island, southern Brooklyn, and Flushing, Queens — areas where Republicans typically perform better. On Sunday he campaigned in Westchester County. Throughout, he hammered the Hochul-Mamdani alliance as his central argument.

Please take (Mamdani) everywhere you go, Kathy, because I want to remind people that this un-American, antisemite, anti-Christian mayor is running the Democratic Party and Kathy Hochul is nothing more than his puppet.— Bruce Blakeman, Nassau County Executive and Republican gubernatorial candidate

The fact is, we're the highest-taxed state in America. Our utility bills are 70% higher than the national average. And crime is rampant everywhere.— Bruce Blakeman, Nassau County Executive and Republican gubernatorial candidate

The latest Siena Research Institute poll, conducted October 19–22 among 807 likely voters, put Hochul ahead 54 percent to 40 percent — a 14-point margin that has grown from a 9-point gap in September. Blakeman disputes the findings, arguing polls undersample Republicans and that the race is closer than the numbers suggest, according to ABC7.

Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing.— Steven Greenberg, Siena Research Institute pollster

The poll's most telling number may not be the horse-race figure: a plurality of likely voters — 35 percent — said neither candidate would make life more affordable, compared with 30 percent who chose Hochul and 27 percent who chose Blakeman. Quinnipiac University assistant poll director Mary Snow noted that cost of living and the economy have ranked as the top two issues in both of the university's polls of the race.

We have seen that the cost of living and the economy rank as the top two issues in both polls that we've done. And when you combine those two as the top issues in this race, that makes a big difference.— Mary Snow, assistant director, Quinnipiac University Poll

The Siena poll also recorded a milestone for Hochul: for the first time in five years of Siena polling during her tenure as governor, a majority of likely voters — 51 percent — view her favorably. Her job approval rose to 51 percent, up from 48 percent in September. Blakeman's favorable rating stands at 39 percent against a 40 percent unfavorable. A gender gap is pronounced: Hochul leads by 23 points among women and 6 points among men.

Hochul became governor in 2021 when Andrew Cuomo resigned amid sexual harassment allegations he denied. She won a full term in 2022, defeating Republican Lee Zeldin by six points. Blakeman has campaigned on fighting crime and lowering taxes, and received an endorsement from President Donald Trump, including a joint rally in Syracuse in early October.

New York's congressional races add a national dimension to the ballot. Control of the U.S. House could hinge in part on outcomes in the state, with competitive contests in the 17th District (lower Hudson Valley), the 3rd District (Nassau-Queens), and the 21st District stretching from the Mohawk Valley to the Canadian border — where Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik is not seeking reelection after dropping out of the governor's race. In the attorney general's race, incumbent Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54 percent to 39 percent in the Siena poll.

Why it matters — New York's governor race and a cluster of competitive congressional districts could help determine which party controls the U.S. House — and the outcome may turn on whether either candidate can convince voters they will actually lower the cost of living.

Sources differ on Closeness of the Hochul-Blakeman race: Hochul leads by 14 points (54%–40%) among likely voters (foxnews.com) vs Blakeman says polls undersample Republicans and the race is much closer (abc7ny.com)

Reported by abcnews.com, foxnews.com, dnyuz.com, cityandstateny.com, abc7ny.com