Five days out, Democrats are heavy favorites — and both parties are already fighting over what comes next

With five days until the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats are heavy favorites to retake the House of Representatives and are competitive for the Senate — and both parties are already maneuvering for the fight that begins the moment the votes are counted.

Forecast models give Democrats roughly 90% or higher odds of winning the House and between 65% and 75% odds of winning the Senate, according to aggregates from Silver Bulletin and multi-source polling summaries. Democrats lead Republicans by 9.5 points on the generic congressional ballot, according to Nate Silver's polling average. President Trump's net approval rating stands at -23.3, with 60.2% of Americans disapproving of his performance and 36.9% approving — below what any president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, according to The Conversation.

New York Times/Siena polls released this week underscored just how far the Senate map has expanded for Democrats. In South Carolina — a state Trump won by 18 points in 2024 — appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews are tied at 48% among likely voters, according to CNN. Andrews, a physician, leads 57%–37% among independents and pulls 7% of Republican likely voters. The closeness of the race traces directly to qualification doubts about Graham, the previously little-known sister of the late GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham: likely voters say by 7 points that Graham does not have the right experience to be an effective senator, and only 35% of Republicans strongly agree that she does, according to CNN.

A similar dynamic played out in Kansas — another state Trump won by 16 points in 2024 — where a Times/Siena poll also showed a dead heat, according to CNN. In Minnesota, by contrast, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads Republican former TV sportscaster Michele Tafoya 54%–40%, with Democrats holding an 18-point generic ballot advantage in the state, according to CNN. In Florida, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon by 6 points, 50%–44%, keeping that state as a second-tier Democratic target, according to CNN.

On the Senate battlegrounds tracked by Silver Bulletin as of October 29, Democrats lead in Texas by 2.5 points, Ohio by 3.0 points, Alaska by 3.6 points, and Maine by 2.4 points — margins that Silver Bulletin describes as 'all just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping.'

Trump's approval is weakest on economic issues. His net approval on inflation stands at -46.0, on the economy at -32.6, on trade at -29.9, and on immigration at -13.2, according to The Conversation. Americans are currently paying an average of $4.29 a gallon for regular gasoline, down from $4.48 on September 25 but potentially set to rise again as international benchmark Brent crude has surged to $116.72 a barrel, according to The Conversation. The Iran war — which 55.2% of Americans currently oppose — has been a persistent drag on Republican numbers, according to The Conversation.

But the deeper story of this election may be less about Tuesday's results than about what they set in motion. A decade after Trump began remaking the Republican Party, the 80-year-old lame-duck president faces a voter rebellion that could force conservatives to rethink their allegiance to him and his MAGA movement. Already, some Republican candidates have begun to distance themselves from him, according to the Associated Press via WTOP.

When President Trump leaves office, it's going to create a tremendous vacuum. And I ask the question, where does the country go next?— John E. Sununu, former Republican senator, running for the New Hampshire Senate seat he lost in 2008

Trump long ago dismantled what strategists called Ronald Reagan's three-legged stool of conservatism — fiscal conservatism, conservative social values, and a muscular foreign policy — replacing it with a fluid populism that, as WTOP reported, 'changes with the whims of the outgoing president.' What remains is a broader coalition of working-class voters, including growing shares of Hispanics, African Americans, and young people who were once reliably Democratic.

When we see that, that'll tell you a lot about the future. Look, if all those folks stay home — they're disaffected because of the economy, or the war, or pick your exit polling issue — that then leaves a lot of questions of who's going to be the next standard-bearer for the party.— David Urban, Republican strategist

Most of the Republican Party's 2028 speculation has centered on Vice President JD Vance, 42, who went from Trump critic to Trump acolyte and could face the challenge of establishing an independent political identity from the number two role, according to WTOP. A bad night Tuesday could also open the door for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or even former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 64, who is weighing a comeback, according to WTOP.

Democrats face their own internal reckoning. The party establishment is rallying behind Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become the nation's first Black House speaker if Democrats win the majority. But frustrated progressives are demanding sweeping change in both personnel and policy. The number of House members backed by the Democratic Socialists of America is expected to grow from two to at least seven in the new Congress, boosted by the slate of candidates backed by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani in the primaries, according to WTOP.

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, a Democratic presidential prospect facing reelection, declined when asked directly whether he welcomed the DSA into his party, telling the Associated Press he wanted 'commonsense leaders that are prepared to disrupt the status quo and know how to move fast in order to get things done,' according to WTOP.

I don't want to be a party of no and slow. I want to be a party of yes and now. I want to be a party that is deeply impatient to be able to deliver the kind of results that we're hoping for and the things that we're hoping to see for our families.— Wes Moore, Maryland Governor

Corbin Trent, a former adviser to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, argued that Tuesday represents a transformational opportunity on healthcare, housing, and infrastructure — but expressed doubt that current Democratic leadership is prepared to seize it.

This election is rejection of the status quo. The fact is, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and the bulk of Democratic leadership has proven it's incapable to meet this moment for what it is: a transformational moment to bring us forward.— Corbin Trent, former adviser to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Whatever happens Tuesday, Trump remains in office for two more years. The 2026 midterms are, at most, the beginning of the end of his era — not the end itself. The real contest, for both parties, starts Wednesday morning.

Why it matters — The 2026 midterms will determine control of Congress for the final two years of the Trump presidency and trigger an immediate, open contest over the future of both parties heading into 2028.

Reported by northjersey.com, scrutinel.com, natesilver.net, cnn.com, theconversation.com, wtop.com, japannews.yomiuri.co.jp