7.4 million Texans voted early in 2026 midterms, matching 2018's record pace

Texas closed its early voting period Friday with roughly 7.4 million ballots cast — a record absolute number for a midterm election and a turnout rate of approximately 39 to 40 percent of registered voters, according to preliminary data from the secretary of state's office. That puts the state on pace with 2018, the modern high-water mark for midterm participation, when Beto O'Rourke came closer than any Democrat in recent memory to winning statewide office.

The figures are preliminary. Turnout data posted Saturday can be incomplete because each county reports on its own schedule, and mail-in ballots are still expected to arrive. Election Day is Tuesday.

The surge comes in a cycle defined by two high-profile contests: Attorney General Ken Paxton, a McKinney Republican, is in a tight race against state Rep. James Talarico, an Austin Democrat, for a U.S. Senate seat. Separately, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin Democrat, is challenging Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth term.

We’re not going to hit presidential levels, but this is definitely high turnout. The question that is still out there is, and this happens every time that we try to interpret early voting numbers: How many votes are actually still out there?— Mark Jones, political science professor, Rice University

More than 19 million Texans are registered to vote — up 2.2 percent from the November 2024 presidential election — meaning the same percentage pace as 2018 now represents a larger raw number of voters.

Earlier in the early-voting window, the turnout rate was actually lagging behind 2018. The final-days surge drew attention from Democratic strategist Matt Angle, who argued it signals a shift in who is showing up.

That doesn’t mean Democrats are going to win, Republicans are going to lose. That’s a big mistake to make those assumptions, but it shows that the structure of the electorate is such that Democrats have a chance to win.— Matt Angle, Democratic strategist

Angle pointed to preliminary reports showing elevated turnout in the state's urban cores — Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant counties among them — describing those areas as places where Democrats compete better and where the voter pool tends to be more racially diverse.

Now that doesn’t mean that those shares couldn’t be made up on Election Day, but typically, though, what happens is the electorate’s a little bit more diverse on Election Day.— Matt Angle, Democratic strategist

For comparison: 5.5 million Texans voted early in the 2022 midterm, a 31 percent turnout rate. In the 2024 presidential general election, 9 million cast early ballots, reaching 49 percent. The all-time high remains 2020, when 9.7 million people — 57 percent of registered voters at the time — voted.

With Election Day still ahead, the final 2026 total will depend on how many additional voters show up Tuesday and how many outstanding mail ballots are received and counted.

Why it matters — With two nationally watched statewide races on the ballot and Election Day still ahead, the early-vote surge sets the stage for what could be the most competitive Texas midterm in years.

Sources differ on Early turnout rate compared to 2018: About 40%, matching the 2018 high-water mark (texastribune.org) vs About 39%, nearly matching the 2018 high-water mark (kwtx.com)

Reported by texastribune.org, wfaa.com, kwtx.com