Two days out: Democrats favored to flip House as Senate hangs in balance

More than 51 million Americans have already voted, and with two days left before Election Day on November 3, the 2026 midterms are shaping up as one of the most consequential in recent memory — with control of the House, the Senate, 36 governorships, and 145 statewide ballot measures all on the line.

The arithmetic is unforgiving for Republicans. They hold a 218-214 House majority — with two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with the GOP — meaning Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to take control. In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 edge, but Democrats need four additional seats there as well. Fox News' final Power Rankings rate the Senate a toss-up and project Democrats to retake the House, potentially winning as many as 240 seats in the 435-seat chamber.

National polling gives Democrats a substantial lead. A Reuters/Ipsos survey of likely voters conducted October 22–26 found Democrats ahead 53% to 44% for Congress. A THP/MM national survey conducted October 28–29 put Democrats ahead 54% to 41%, and an Emerson College poll from October 24–26 showed a 10-point Democratic lead. The RealClearPolling average has Democrats leading 51.5% to 43.1%, according to Al Jazeera.

Polling shows an environment that is pretty favourable to the Democrats. The president is very unpopular, Americans feel the pinch of high costs, which are partly due to tariffs and the war in Iran, and the general sentiment is that Republicans did not deliver in the last two years.— Natalie Jackson, political analyst and pollster

The political headwinds facing Republicans are well-documented. Trump's job approval has fallen to an all-time low of 32%, according to a September Reuters/Ipsos poll cited by The Independent. Persistent inflation, partly attributed in polls to an unpopular war with Iran, is the dominant economic grievance. And history itself works against the party in power: in the 2010 midterms, Republicans gained 63 House seats against Barack Obama; in 2018, Democrats gained a net 40 House seats against Trump's first term.

Trump has nonetheless pressed forward with a closing argument built on party loyalty. Campaigning last week, he pledged: 'If you elect a Republican House and a Republican Senate on Nov. 3, we will continue to put America first every single day,' and warned that Democratic control would mean 'this country will go to hell.' On Sunday, he is scheduled to hold rallies in Iowa and Kansas — two of the most contested Senate battlegrounds — after initially cancelling both appearances before reversing course on Friday, according to Al Jazeera.

They never should have been cancelled to begin with. Whether they help or not, they certainly help Trump to show that I'm out there trying to do the things to get my people over the line.— Doug Heye, Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee

Heye was blunt about his party's messaging problem. Asked whether Republicans had found a convincing closing argument on the economy, he said: 'No, they haven't. That's a big part of their challenge.' He argued candidates needed to speak directly to household costs — energy, healthcare, groceries — rather than abstract policy.

The Senate map is where Republican exposure is most acute. The Fox News Power Rankings identify seven battleground states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas — all seats Republicans are currently defending. Kansas, which has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, has emerged as a surprise flashpoint. A Washington Post-Schar School poll released Friday showed Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall 52% to 43%, though an Emerson College survey showed a tighter race at 50% to 47%. Republican strategists have questioned the wider poll's margin, with Heye noting that Republicans have historically been undercounted by pollsters.

A lot of Republicans just don't want to answer calls from pollsters.— Doug Heye, Republican strategist

In Michigan, Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed — who has faced what Al Jazeera describes as an increased wave of Islamophobic attacks during the campaign — is holding events in Detroit and Southfield on Sunday as he seeks to defeat Republican Mike Rogers. His campaign pollster, Celinda Lake, said the race would come down to turnout.

I think the race is going to be really close. What we're looking at is turnout.— Celinda Lake, Democratic strategist and pollster working with El-Sayed's campaign

Lake also offered a candid assessment of the broader Democratic position: 'The feelings about the Democrats are negative, too, which is very different from, say, 2018, when Democrats were positively perceived.' Voters, she said, were seeking change but remained uncertain what either party would actually deliver.

If Democrats do retake the House, the speaker's gavel would almost certainly go to Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the current House Democratic leader. Jeffries, who would become the first Black American to hold the office, has said Democrats would investigate what he has called 'unprecedented levels of corruption' during the Trump administration and focus legislatively on reducing costs for healthcare, groceries, housing and energy, according to The Independent. A Republican hold, by contrast, would keep the gavel with current Speaker Mike Johnson — or whichever Republican prevails if he faces a leadership challenge — and keep the focus on additional tax cuts, defense spending increases and further reductions to social safety net programs.

Fox News contributor Remy Numa flagged Kentucky's 6th Congressional District — covering Lexington and a large central area of the state — as an early bellwether on election night. Trump won the district by 15 points in 2024, but a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers facing higher costs has made the race competitive this cycle. Kentucky's polls close among the earliest in the nation, giving it outsized significance as results begin to come in.

Beyond Congress, 36 governorships are at stake. Republicans currently hold 26 to Democrats' 24. The Power Rankings rate Alaska, Nevada and Georgia — all currently Republican-held — as toss-ups, along with Wisconsin, where an open Democratic-held seat is up for grabs.

The ballot measure landscape is equally sweeping. Voter ID requirements or bans on noncitizen voting are before voters in 11 states. California's Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on assets held by billionaires who were California residents on January 1, 2026, with 90% of revenue directed to healthcare. Washington state voters will decide whether to repeal a newly enacted 9.9% tax on income over $1 million annually. Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska and Washington state have referendums on transgender students' participation in sports. Virginia voters will decide whether to automatically restore voting rights to convicted felons upon release.

The scale of the election is reflected in its price tag. As of October 30, a record $11.6 billion had been spent on political advertisements for the 2025–26 election cycle, according to AdImpact as cited by The Independent. Elon Musk alone has spent $442 million to support Republicans, campaign finance records show. The heaviest ad spending is concentrated in Senate battlegrounds in Texas, Ohio and Michigan.

Poll closings begin at 6 p.m. ET on November 3, with the final closings in Alaska's Aleutian Islands at 1 a.m. ET on November 4. Given the volume of mail-in ballots and the closeness of several races, final results in key battlegrounds may take days to confirm.

Why it matters — Whichever party controls Congress after November 3 will set the legislative agenda for the final two years of Trump's term — determining whether his tax, spending and social priorities advance or face sustained opposition and investigation.

Sources differ on Kansas Senate race: Hamilton vs. Marshall: Hamilton leads 52%–43% (Washington Post-Schar School poll, released Oct. 31) (aljazeera.com) vs Hamilton leads 50%–47% (Emerson College poll) (aljazeera.com)

Sources differ on Number of Senate seats Republicans hold: Republicans hold 53 seats; Democrats hold 45, with 2 independents caucusing with Democrats (total Democratic-aligned: 47) (outlookindia.com) vs Republicans hold 53 seats; Democrats hold 47 (foxnews.com)

Reported by foxnews.com, independent.co.uk, outlookindia.com, aljazeera.com, midtermforecast.com, usatoday.com, livenewsworld.com