Gulf States Warn Iran of Retaliation as U.S. Strike Window Opens After Midterms

Several Gulf Arab states have privately warned Iran that they are prepared to launch retaliatory strikes — alone or in coordination with others — if Tehran attacks their infrastructure in response to renewed American military action, according to mediators. The warnings land as the window for a possible U.S. offensive opens in the days following Tuesday's midterm elections, leaving energy-rich Gulf governments caught between their security alliance with Washington and the risk that their own oil fields, desalination plants, and airports become the battlefield.

President Trump has not made a final decision on whether to strike, according to the multi-source reporting. He has backed away from attacking Iran seven times in the past four months, according to The Guardian, but a deadlock in diplomatic negotiations has led U.S. officials to outline a potential new campaign aimed at missile sites, oil installations, and nuclear facilities. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, has urged that strikes begin without delay and sat down with U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in Israel on Monday to go over timing and objectives, according to The Guardian. Netanyahu would prefer Iran to attack first, he reportedly told Hegseth.

Iran's response to that prospect has been explicit and deliberately alarming. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that a fresh attack would prompt Iran to strike oil facilities, undersea cables, data centers, and AI facilities across as many as seven Gulf countries. According to the Soufan Center, Iranian media then published a detailed roster of intended targets that included bridges, railway networks, and international airports in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other Gulf states, along with underwater fiber optic cables in the Persian Gulf, petrochemical plants, power plants, desalination plants, technology and AI companies, and hotels and shopping centers throughout the region.

There can be no arrangement in which Iran's economic lifelines come under attack while the economic architecture enabling those attacks is considered untouched and immune.— Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary, Iran's Supreme National Security Council

IRGC senior figures have gone further, claiming Iran will deploy newly developed advanced missiles — with technology possibly supplied by Russia — against U.S. warships now positioned at least 500 miles off Iran's coast, according to the Soufan Center. The IRGC's naval forces claimed this week to have simultaneously struck four commercial ships attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, and said three more vessels were hit by mines in the strait. At $113.4 a barrel, Brent crude reached a recent high, according to The Guardian. There was no independent verification of the ship strikes.

The hardline position inside Iran is framed in existential terms. Mehdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to parliament speaker and lead nuclear negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf, said on social media that Iran views the coming phase of the conflict as a fight for survival.

We see the next conflict as an existential threat. The third war in two years means a threat to existence. Our strategy is 'zero red lines.'— Mehdi Mohammadi, Adviser to Mohammad Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran's Majles

We are in a surprise phase of the war, and we will not fight a classic war … It will be an asymmetrical, fierce and conclusive war that will target the enemy's strong points and weak spots.— Mehdi Mohammadi, Adviser to Mohammad Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran's Majles

According to The Guardian, Fars news agency, which is close to the IRGC, reported that Iran has directed its military and operational units that any new large-scale war involving the killing of Iranian officials or civilians would draw a response extending beyond military targets to include political ones as well.

The current conflict cycle was set in motion by Operation Midnight Hammer last June, according to the Soufan Center. A June U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding collapsed shortly after it was signed, though its core provisions remain the basis for ongoing indirect talks. At least $6 billion in Iranian Central Bank assets held by Qatar's national bank were to be freed under that agreement, and those funds continue to give Qatari mediators a degree of leverage.

Mediators have not given up. According to the Soufan Center, senior officials from the 'Mecca Pact' states — Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia — traveled to Tehran on Monday for meetings with IRGC Major General Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and President Masoud Pezeshkian. The discussions produced no major breakthroughs. Pakistan's Army Chief of Staff, Asif Munir, visited Tehran last week to encourage Iranian diplomatic flexibility and returned to attend the Mecca Pact meeting. Qatari mediators followed with a one-day visit to Tehran seeking to orchestrate a return to the June MOU. Tehran has signaled willingness to lift the Hormuz blockade within seven days and enter nuclear negotiations, provided Washington moves first on sanctions relief, according to The Guardian.

On Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced that the supreme leader had delegated certain authority to the government regarding the negotiations and that Tehran intended to pursue a diplomatic resolution. Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, said talks with mediators had been intensive, according to VINnews. But the Soufan Center assessed that the week's diplomatic activity appeared designed at least in part to empower moderate Iranian leaders — who argue only a diplomatic solution can guarantee the regime's long-term security — against hardliners who insist Washington can only be deterred by force.

On the ground, Gulf states are not waiting to see which faction prevails. According to VINnews, Qatar's nationwide WATAN 2026 exercise extended to Hamad International Airport on Monday, with Qatar Airways confirming its participation in contingency and readiness activities as part of the annual drill while assuring passengers that flights and services would proceed as normal. At the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on Sunday, Anwar Gargash, the UAE's diplomatic adviser to the president, indicated that the Emirates have no desire for another round of fighting but have made preparations for the worst-case scenario.

We don't really want to see another round of confrontation in the region.— Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to the UAE President

The U.S. military buildup is expected to wrap up by early November, ahead of a new Congress — potentially more Democrat-leaning — being seated in January, according to The Guardian. By that month, Trump plans to have three aircraft carriers, thousands of marines, fighter jets, and special operations forces in place across the Middle East. Extended joint U.S.-Israel training maneuvers, including practice runs over Iraq, have been under way, and dozens of Israeli planes flew close to the Iranian border earlier this week, according to Axios as cited by The Guardian. A large fire at an aluminum factory in Arak in central Iran has raised suspicions of sabotage.

Reza Nasri, an international lawyer described as close to the Iranian foreign ministry, offered a stark assessment of where a third round of fighting could lead.

A third wave of war would not stay contained. Power grids, desalination plants, refineries and ports across the region would burn. Tens of millions would be left without water or electricity, and a massive wave of refugees would move from Arab countries towards Europe. Hormuz would close completely, oil would spike, and the global economy would tip into recession. Israel's economy, already bled by mobilisation and missile fire, would not survive a prolonged war of attrition. And Trump would be trapped in a crisis that consumes the rest of his presidency and leaves a wreck for his successors.— Reza Nasri, International Lawyer

According to The Guardian, foreign ministers from three European nations, along with their counterparts from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt, are scheduled to convene in Istanbul on Friday to coordinate positions on the intertwined crises involving Iran, Yemen, and the Palestinians. At a Cambridge event on Monday, Oman's Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi renewed his call for a 'non-aggression pact' among the eight Gulf states — the six Arab Gulf monarchies, Iran, and Iraq — describing it as a 'fundamental step toward establishing sustainable regional security,' according to the Soufan Center. Whether any of that diplomacy can outrun the military clock is the question now hanging over the entire region.

Why it matters — A new U.S.-Iran war could close the Strait of Hormuz, spike global oil prices, and trigger Iranian strikes on the Gulf infrastructure that underpins world energy supply — with cascading effects on economies far beyond the Middle East.

Sources differ on Whether a U.S. strike decision has been made: Trump has not made a final decision and has backed away from striking seven times in four months (theguardian.com) vs Trump has been described as leaning toward a large post-midterm attack while still giving diplomacy a chance (vinnews.com)

Reported by wsj.com, reuters.com, archive.is, theguardian.com, vinnews.com, businessmirror.com.ph, thesoufancenter.org