Gas prices hit record high for any Election Day as voters head to polls Tuesday

Americans voting in Tuesday's midterm elections will pay more for gas than on any Election Day in U.S. history — a reality that Republican lawmakers, after weeks of searching for a fix, have largely accepted they cannot change before the polls close.

The national average price of regular gasoline stood at approximately $4.17 per gallon as of Monday, according to AAA data — roughly 37 cents above the previous Election Day record of $3.80, set during the 2022 midterms when Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a global energy crisis. Diesel, critical to trucking and agriculture, averaged $6.32 per gallon, up about 70 percent from a year ago, according to CNBC.

The milestone lands with particular political sting for President Donald Trump, who campaigned in 2024 on a promise to cut energy prices to below $2 a gallon within his first year in office.

My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office. Energy is going to bring us back. That means we're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon.— President Donald Trump, September 2024 speech to the New York Economic Club

Instead, prices have surged since Trump and Israel jointly attacked Iran on February 28, prompting Tehran to retaliate with strikes on tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that, before the conflict began, carried roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil and gas supply, according to The Independent. Gasoline nationally averaged $2.98 before the war; diesel stood at $3.76, according to the same outlet.

Trump got in his own way. Back in December, we predicted that 2026 was going to be the cheapest year for gas since 2020. That required no effort. And obviously, it hasn't gone that way.— Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy

A Financial Times analysis of federal data found that average gas prices under Trump will hit $3.46 a gallon on a cumulative basis since he took office, surpassing the prior record set during the Biden administration, according to The Daily Beast and The Independent.

The political damage is measurable. According to a New York Times/Siena University poll conducted in October, three in four likely voters disapprove of Trump's handling of gas prices. Fifty-three percent said they trust the Democratic Party to do a better job on the issue, compared with 38 percent who said the same of Republicans, according to the Washington Post.

Republican senators spent weeks pitching alternatives — a diesel export ban, a gas tax suspension, expanded ethanol use — only to conclude that none would move prices meaningfully. Senate Majority Leader John Thune briefly entertained the export ban before deciding it would cause a longer-term price spike. A provision allowing year-round use of E15 ethanol blend is tied up in a broader farm bill. A gas tax suspension drew criticism for cutting highway revenue without addressing the underlying supply shortage.

There's no silver bullet. You could end the war in Iran tomorrow, and it still is not going to get us back to where we were in February.— Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska

Politicians don't have a lever to override global economics.— Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy

Trump has taken several steps in the final stretch. He signed an executive order waiving restrictions on red-dyed off-road diesel so truckers could use it on highways. A relief program worth $8 billion was established to assist farmers burdened by elevated fuel costs. And he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow Moscow to export roughly 6 million barrels of diesel into the global market through November — a move condemned by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some Republican senators as rewarding Russian aggression. Energy analysts said the volumes are too small to meaningfully affect prices.

Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi Arabian refineries and Ukraine's continuing strikes on Russian refineries have added to the disruption stemming from the Middle East — the latter being a war Trump vowed to end within his first week back in office but which, according to CNBC, has settled into an intractable stalemate.

Frankly, diesel is the key crunch point here because it is so critical to economic growth.— Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil

Speaking at a Michigan rally last Sunday, Trump described rising fuel prices as "a small price to pay" to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The White House argued that gas prices adjusted for inflation have been higher around previous election days, and spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement that "once this conflict comes to an end, gas prices will drop drastically, and the Iranian terrorist regime will not have a nuclear weapon," according to CNBC.

There has been some relief in the final days: GasBuddy reported Monday that the national average had fallen 17.1 cents over the past week to $4.12, driven by refinery maintenance wrapping up and seasonal demand fading. Oil prices also dropped sharply Monday as diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran offered some hope of easing tensions, with WTI falling to around $99 per barrel. But analysts cautioned that the pullback reflects improved expectations, not a resolution.

The oil market is still reacting with extreme sensitivity to every headline out of the Middle East. While fears of an imminent escalation pushed prices up last week, they have dropped sharply at the start of this week as diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran continue.— Giovanni Staunono, UBS commodities analyst

If there are escalations, that could obviously put upward pressure on prices just ahead of Thanksgiving, which is also when Americans have really staunch traditions in terms of driving to friends and family.— Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy

Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., put the GOP's predicament plainly: "I don't think anything other than having the conflict with Iran completely resolve itself before the election could have much of an effect on the crisis. She added that she sees no sign of the Iran conflict wrapping up before Election Day, meaning voters will likely cast their ballots while fuel costs remain elevated — "so, it's a headwind," she said.

Why it matters — Record Election Day fuel costs — driven by a war Trump started and couldn't end — are testing whether voters will hold the president's party accountable for prices that have nearly doubled at the diesel pump since February.

Sources differ on National average gas price on Election Day eve: $4.12/gallon (week avg., down 17.1¢ on the week) (gasbuddy.com) vs $4.17/gallon as of Monday (washingtonpost.com (via dnyuz.com)) vs $4.20/gallon as of Friday (cnbc.com) vs $4.29/gallon (described as 'last week') (independent.co.uk) vs $4.37/gallon as of Monday (ms.now)

Reported by washingtonpost.com, gasbuddy.com, thedailybeast.com, cnbc.com, ft.com, dnyuz.com, independent.co.uk, ms.now