Maine students pick Troy Jackson over Collins in mock election, one week before the real vote

With one week to go before Election Day, Maine's students have rendered their verdict: Democrat Troy Jackson should take Susan Collins' Senate seat. In a statewide mock election held October 27, more than 12,000 students across 115 schools gave Jackson 50.8% of the vote to Collins' 45.1%, with 4.1% going to write-in candidates. The Maine Secretary of State's Office released the results the following day.

The exercise is not a real election — but it isn't meaningless either. According to Maine Public, since 1996 students appear to have chosen the ultimate winners in every major candidate race except three. That track record gives the results at least some weight in a Senate contest that polls describe as genuinely too close to call.

A Marist University poll released the same week found Collins trailing Jackson by 2 percentage points among likely voters — a lead within the survey's margin of error, according to The Hill. Poll after poll has given Jackson a narrow edge, though Collins has led in at least one public poll this fall, also by a single digit, according to the Bangor Daily News.

The mock election covered all four of Maine's major races. Students chose Democrat Hannah Pingree for governor with 41.8% of the vote, well ahead of Republican Bobby Charles at 30.4% and independent Rick Bennett at 24.4%. In the 1st Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Chellie Pingree — Hannah's mother — won with 57.5% to Republican Ronald Russell's 39.7%. The Democratic sweep broke down in the 2nd Congressional District, where Republican former Gov. Paul LePage drew 52% of student support against Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap's 43.2%.

Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said the Maine Student Mock Election is an engaging way for students across the state to learn about elections and have their voices heard even before they can cast a real ballot. She noted that practicing voting before students turn 18 can help them feel prepared to participate in our democracy when the day comes.

The Collins-Jackson race is the centerpiece of the ballot. Collins, who officially announced her bid for a sixth term in February, has beaten back challengers before — most notably in 2020, when she defied polls and expectations to secure a fifth term. If she wins again, she would become Maine's longest-serving U.S. senator, according to the Bangor Daily News.

Both parties have deployed prominent surrogates. Republicans have brought in Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson to campaign for Collins, while Democrats have sent U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to boost Jackson. Former President Barack Obama endorsed Jackson this month, and former Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia stumped for Collins last week, according to the Bangor Daily News.

More than 62 former diplomats and foreign affairs officials — including former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice and former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman — have also announced their backing for Jackson, according to The Hill.

The mock election's predictive record is real but imperfect. Students backed Donald Trump for president in 2016 — correctly — but also backed a gun background check referendum that failed. In 2020, they backed Democrat Sara Gideon in her Senate bid against Collins; Collins won. This year, students also backed a candidate who would have cleared Maine's ranked-choice runoff threshold: both Jackson at 50.8% and LePage at 52% surpassed the 50%-plus-one mark needed to avoid a runoff, according to Maine Public.

Why it matters — The Collins-Jackson race could shift the Senate's partisan balance, and with polls deadlocked, every signal — including a student mock vote with a mixed but notable predictive record — is being watched closely.

Reported by thehill.com, bangordailynews.com, mainepublic.org