Miami leads CFP projections as first official 2026 rankings arrive Tuesday

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will unveil its first rankings of the 2026 season on Tuesday, November 3 — and after a Week 9 defined more by close calls than blowouts, the picture at the top is clearer than the chaos just beneath it.

Undefeated Miami is the near-universal No. 1 in analyst projections heading into that reveal. Georgia and Utah — both with one loss or none, respectively — are broadly projected second and third in some order. Indiana, the reigning national champion, has climbed into the top four in several models despite what CBS Sports describes as a resume that hasn't fully passed the eye test in recent weeks.

The biggest movement after Week 9 came from Ohio State, which stumbled without injured quarterback Julian Sayin in a loss at USC. The Buckeyes fell out of the top 10 in Bleacher Report's projection and now carry what CBS Sports describes as zero margin for error in their playoff pursuit. CBS Sports' forecasting model gives Ohio State a 69.6% chance to make the playoff — a number that drops to 36.3% if the Buckeyes lose to Oregon.

Week 9 was otherwise a week of survival. Notre Dame pulled away from Navy after a slow start. Indiana escaped Minnesota in overtime. Miami walked out of North Carolina with an uncomfortable win. All avoided the loss that would have reshuffled the bracket.

The SEC presents the most tangled picture. According to Bleacher Report, Kentucky and Georgia are the only conference teams with exactly one SEC loss, while six programs with two losses each are still in contention. Kentucky's case is particularly strong on paper: CBS Sports notes the Wildcats are 2-1 against top-25 opponents, hold the nation's No. 2 strength of record and No. 4 strength of schedule, and already own a win over LSU. A win over Tennessee on Saturday would further bolster their case.

Texas has two of what CBS Sports calls the best wins in the country — over a full-strength Ohio State and Ole Miss — but also losses to Oklahoma and Florida. Alabama beat Kentucky but lost to Tennessee. Tennessee lost to South Carolina. Ole Miss beat LSU but lost to Florida and Texas. The committee will have to untangle all of it.

In the Big 12, Utah enters the Holy War against BYU as the conference's only undefeated team at 7-0 after a 21-13 win over No. 14 Houston. BYU suffered its first loss last Saturday but remains in the conversation after its earlier win over Notre Dame in Provo. That Notre Dame win is both BYU's best asset and a source of a looming committee question: will the Fighting Irish be ranked ahead of BYU despite losing the head-to-head matchup?

UCLA presents a different kind of puzzle. CBS Sports notes the Bruins have a weak schedule but are undefeated and on track to finish 11-1 or 12-0 in the regular season, making their placement in the initial rankings one of the more consequential early decisions the committee will make.

For the Group of Six automatic bid, Boise State is the highest-rated program across most projections. Bleacher Report also lists New Mexico and UTSA as candidates to crack the top 25.

One new wrinkle this year: the committee includes new members Jeff Tedford and Gus Malzahn, and is working with a new metric — strength of conference — that CBS Sports says could produce a different-looking ranking than in prior seasons. That metric is already drawing attention from conference officials. Big 12 chief competition officer Scott Draper told Deseret News that his conference was 'the second-ranked conference, strength of conference, in their metrics last year,' and expressed confidence the league will be well-represented.

That confidence connects to the broader expansion debate running parallel to this season. ESPN and the CFP have reportedly reached a handshake agreement — not yet finalized — for the network to broadcast a 24-team playoff format beginning in 2027, according to Deseret News. The proposed setup includes 19 at-large spots, the four Power Four conference champions, and the top-ranked Group of Six team.

Oh yeah, me personally I like the 24-team playoff. I think it will make football more interesting, especially every game will count in November.— Kalani Sitake, BYU head coach

LSU head coach Lane Kiffin has gone further, according to Yahoo Sports, calling the expansion not just preferable but essential — particularly given the depth and parity within the SEC. Draper noted that under a 24-team format, last season's Big 12 would have sent five teams — BYU, Texas Tech, Utah, Arizona and Houston — to the playoff, compared to the one team (Texas Tech) that actually qualified.

Are you going to have 10-and-2 or 8- or 9-and-3 Big 12 teams that are going to be left out for, say, an 8-and-4 or 7-and-5 SEC or Big Ten team? I think that's sort of TBD.— Ben Portnoy, college sports writer, Fox Sports

For now, the 12-team format governs 2026, and Tuesday night's first rankings will set the baseline that the committee refines over the final month of the regular season. With Miami at Notre Dame, Georgia at Ole Miss, and the Utah-BYU Holy War all on the Week 10 slate, the bracket could look meaningfully different by next weekend.

Why it matters — Tuesday's first official rankings set the baseline that will shape every CFP conversation for the final month of the regular season — and with Ohio State wounded, the SEC in chaos, and the Big 12 sending two contenders into a rivalry game, the bracket could shift dramatically before the field is set.

Sources differ on Ordering of Georgia and Utah at No. 2 and No. 3 in initial CFP rankings: Georgia No. 2, Utah No. 3 (bleacherreport.com) vs Utah No. 3 (frontrunner for Big 12, first-round bye candidate) (cbssports.com)

Sources differ on Indiana's projected seeding in the top 4: Indiana No. 4 (bleacherreport.com) vs Indiana ranked lower due to weak resume and failed eye test (cbssports.com)

Reported by yahoo.com, cbssports.com, deseret.com, athlonsports.com, bleacherreport.com, si.com, usatoday.com