Bay Area voters approve $1bn-a-year transit tax, pulling BART and Muni back from the edge

Bay Area voters handed their financially battered public transit system a lifeline this week, approving two ballot measures that will pump roughly $1 billion a year into the region's largest agencies — and head off a cascade of cuts that officials had warned could have triggered the outright shutdown of BART and Caltrain within a few years.

Voters across all five participating counties backed the Regional Transit Measure (RTM) by 62.2%, a measure that levies a 0.5% sales tax in four Bay Area counties and a 1% sales tax in San Francisco. San Francisco delivered the strongest endorsement, with 78.6% in favor. In the same city, 73.6% of voters also approved Proposition H, a parcel tax dedicated to Muni — the nation's first publicly owned and operated transit agency in a major U.S. city, according to The Guardian.

The stakes could hardly have been higher. BART faced a deficit of $375 million, Muni a gap of $307 million that could reach $434 million within five years, and Caltrain a $75 million shortfall, according to the SF Standard. Without new revenue, all three agencies had warned they would begin cutting service in 2027 — and BART and Caltrain cautioned they could shut down entirely within two years after those cuts began. Together, the three systems carry nearly 8 million passengers a month.

The specific 'doomsday' scenarios on the table were severe. BART would have closed as many as 15 of its 50 stations, reduced service to trains every 30 minutes on just three lines, ended service at 9 p.m. seven days a week, and raised fares and parking fees by as much as 50%. Caltrain would have closed more than a third of its 28 stations, ended weekend service, and cut trains to hourly at peak. Muni would have eliminated 20 bus lines, cut half the buses on remaining routes, ended cable car service, and moved its overnight Owl service to a 9 p.m. start.

The financial crisis has its roots in the pandemic. Remote and hybrid work took hold across the Bay Area faster than anywhere else in the country, leaving many former daily BART commuters riding the system only a few times a week — or not at all. Because BART relies heavily on fare revenue — with only 5% of its operating budget coming from the state, according to The Guardian — the ridership shortfall hit its finances especially hard. Unlike Muni, which can tap city funding sources such as hotel tax revenue, BART's options were more limited.

This is existential, especially for BART.— Tom Radulovich, former BART board member and senior policy fellow, Livable City

The campaign to get the measures on the ballot was itself a significant organizing feat. Thousands of volunteers collected 77,000 of the 305,000 signatures needed to qualify the RTM — a total the Connect Bay Area coalition described as the highest volunteer signature-gathering mobilization in recent Bay Area memory. Organizer Lian Chang, who had no campaign experience when she got involved in 2023, helped build the effort from a mock funeral procession outside city hall — complete with cardboard coffins and replicas of local trains and buses — into a full grassroots campaign. She worked with local designers to create buttons handed out on specific bus lines slated for cuts, helping riders self-identify as a constituency and recruit more volunteers.

We don't know of any larger signature-gathering mobilization in the Bay Area.— Lian Chang, Connect Bay Area organizer

A small opposition campaign did run against the RTM. Debora Allen, a former BART board member, urged a no vote, with the campaign arguing that BART and Caltrain already collect revenue from taxes and tolls and that asking voters for another tax was ill-timed given affordability pressures. Rather than a new tax, Marc Joffe of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit argued that lawmakers should redirect $1 billion in cap-and-invest funds away from the high-speed rail project, a venture he pointed out has ballooned to $126 billion in estimated costs in the nearly two decades since voters approved it in 2008, with no track yet laid. UC Berkeley transit expert Ethan Elkind called that approach unrealistic, noting it would require Central Valley lawmakers to send state money out of their districts, would cut jobs in one of the state's poorest regions, and would offer nothing to Southern California.

That's not realistic.— Ethan Elkind, transit expert, UC Berkeley

Set to last 14 years, the RTM ties agency funding to the adoption of cost-cutting plans, yet leaves unanswered what will happen once the revenue stream expires, according to the SF Standard. Current and former BART board members, transit advocates, and researchers are already discussing longer-term revenue strategies, including expanding transit-oriented real estate development and opening businesses inside stations.

Anti-tax groups may mount legal challenges to the measures, as they have done with transit initiatives in the past. The Public Transit Revenue Measure District stands ready to defend the measures in court should that become necessary, according to Rebecca Long of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the agency that will administer the RTM funds. Legal challenges could tie up funds in escrow accounts for years.

The Public Transit Revenue Measure District is prepared to vigorously defend the will of the voters and the validity of the measure.— Rebecca Long, Metropolitan Transportation Commission

Transit advocates are already looking beyond the immediate win. Jeff Cretan, spokesperson for Connect Bay Area, said the vote should open a broader conversation with the state about how California funds urban transit — not just in the Bay Area but statewide. According to a 2022 California Air Resources Board report, existing transit networks would need to double both their capacity and service frequency by 2030 if the state is to achieve its own climate targets. Together, BART, AC Transit, Caltrain, and Muni carry 30% of all transit riders in California, yet the state supplies only 5% of BART's operating revenue.

This is an opportunity for us to go to the state and say, we need to change how we do this, not just here, but in other parts of the state.— Jeff Cretan, spokesperson, Connect Bay Area

Tuesday's election also brought new political figures into the picture. Scott Wiener, the state senator who co-authored the transit measures, secured the congressional seat being vacated by Nancy Pelosi. Transit advocates expressed hope that governor-elect Xavier Becerra would prioritize public transit after seeing the strong voter support, though transit had not been a central issue of his gubernatorial campaign, according to The Guardian.

Why it matters — The vote buys the Bay Area's transit network more than a decade of financial stability, but the 14-year funding window and unresolved structural deficits mean the region — and the state — will have to confront the same questions again before the money runs out.

Reported by theguardian.com, subscriber.politicopro.com, sfstandard.com, mtc.ca.gov