LePage wins Maine's CD-2 in nation's only unassisted blue-to-red House flip

Maine's 2nd Congressional District is now Republican for the first time without a redrawn map helping it get there. After a recount and a full ranked-choice tabulation that stretched past election night, the Associated Press called the race Thursday for former Gov. Paul LePage over Democratic state auditor Matt Dunlap — the only blue-to-red House flip in the country that redistricting cannot explain.

The margin was razor-thin. First-choice votes on election night gave LePage 170,263 (49.894%) to Dunlap's 164,845 (48.307%) — neither crossing the 50-percent majority required under Maine's ranked-choice voting law. After tabulation concluded early Thursday afternoon, LePage finished with a narrow majority over Dunlap, according to the Maine Secretary of State's office.

Paul LePage is already hard at work for the people of Maine.— Brent Littlefield, LePage spokesperson

Dunlap had conceded before the tabulation was complete, but Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said the process still had to be conducted for legal reasons, according to Q1065.

The seat was open because Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat who had held it by running as a moderate willing to break with his party, announced he would not seek a fifth term. Golden cited what he described as the increasing incivility and plain nastiness that are now common from some elements of our American community, according to the Twin Cities Pioneer Press.

LePage, who served as Maine's 74th Governor from 2011 to 2019 and previously as Mayor of Waterville from 2004 to 2011, is a well-known figure in the state. He has described himself as sharing a brand of conservative populism with President Donald Trump — once saying he was 'Donald Trump before Donald Trump became popular' — though he has also criticized Trump's tariffs on Canada, a key trading partner for Maine, and expressed support for legal immigration.

If it is good for Maine, I will work hard to make it happen. If it is bad for Maine, I will oppose it.— Paul LePage

The 2nd District is the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River at over 27,000 square miles, spanning ten counties of largely rural and forested terrain. Its economy includes logging, potato farming, and lobster fishing — industries that make it more conservative than most of New England. The 1st District, which includes Portland and wealthy coastal towns, remains heavily Democratic.

Nationally, the flip stands out for its scarcity. The only other seats that moved from blue to red — Texas' 32nd and Tennessee's 9th congressional districts — did so with the help of redistricting that made their electorates substantially more conservative, according to the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. Democrats, meanwhile, flipped 44 seats, with a handful of races still uncalled.

LePage has already traveled to Washington for new-member orientation. Official results must be posted within 20 days of the election after being communicated to Gov. Janet Mills.

Why it matters — Maine CD-2 is the only House seat Republicans flipped without redistricting in a midterm cycle that otherwise ran strongly against them, illustrating how the retirement of a single crossover Democrat can reshape a district's partisan outcome.

Reported by twincities.com, maine.gov, movement.vote, q1065.fm