Bay Area braces for parade of storms: dangerous surf, sierra snow, and weeks of rain ahead

The Bay Area's stretch of warm, dry autumn weather ended Friday as the first in a series of Pacific storms swept ashore — and forecasters say the region should get used to it. With an open 'storm door' expected to stay active for 10 days or longer, meteorologists are warning that the most immediate danger is not the rain but the ocean: waves of 25 to 35 feet along most of the Northern California coastline, with isolated breaks like Mavericks near Half Moon Bay potentially seeing 40 to 50 feet through Saturday.

ABC7 meteorologist Drew Tuma upgraded Friday's system to a Level 2 storm — the first moderate storm of the season — with peak rainfall and the strongest winds expected between 9 a.m. and 2 p.m. Friday, followed by showers into the afternoon and a chance of thunderstorms. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected as the cold front moves through, with the National Weather Service forecasting isolated gusts to 50 mph in some locations, according to NBC Bay Area.

Rainfall totals from the first storm are projected at between half an inch and an inch across most of the Bay Area, with the North Bay and coastal hills receiving as much as about 1.25 inches and lighter amounts falling over San Francisco and the South Bay. The National Weather Service says a second system should arrive Sunday and linger into early Tuesday, adding another half-inch to 1.5 inches of rain, with the possibility of at least one further storm during the middle to latter part of next week.

The active period looks to continue kind of mid to late week with potential for another storm.— Rachel Kennedy, National Weather Service meteorologist

The surf threat is the most urgent concern this weekend. A Beach Hazards Statement was in effect through Friday afternoon, when a High Surf Warning took over and will remain in place until 4 a.m. Sunday. Citing the risk of coastal flooding that could hamper emergency access and slow response times, the Santa Cruz County Sheriff's Office on Friday afternoon issued evacuation warnings for several low-lying coastal areas, among them parts of Capitola Village, Pot Belly Beach Road, and Las Olas Drive and Beach Drive in Rio Del Mar. Restricted access along the coast, officials added, could delay emergency responders reaching those in need.

In Santa Cruz, all city beaches and the Municipal Wharf are set to shut down at 10 p.m. Friday, reopening no earlier than 5 a.m. Sunday. In neighboring Capitola — where the beach was already closed due to an E. coli outbreak — crews built protective sand berms as waterfront businesses prepared for potentially destructive surf. Residents and visitors in Monterey County are being urged by the county sheriff's office to keep away from the shoreline altogether.

We really want to stress that this is not a weekend for you to go to the beach. We understand wanting to see the waves, but it is incredibly dangerous.— Rachel Kennedy, National Weather Service meteorologist

If you are on the beach, you run the risk of basically being caught by one of those large waves and then swept out to sea, which both endangers you and any rescuers who are sent to look for you.— Rachel Kennedy, National Weather Service meteorologist

The 40-to-50-foot waves are expected at localized spots that typically see higher surf, Kennedy noted, but breaking waves of 25 to 35 feet are forecast everywhere along the coastline. A coastal flood advisory is also in effect, and low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways — especially around San Pablo Bay, San Francisco Bay, and southern Monterey Bay — could see water inundation of up to 1.5 feet above ground level, according to NBC Bay Area.

The large breaking waves will run further up the beaches and may crash over seawalls.— Rachel Kennedy, National Weather Service meteorologist

In San Francisco, Public Works crews were on high alert as the downpour began, with residents stocking up on sandbags. Rachel Gordon of SF Public Works said crews had already received about two dozen complaints through the city's 311 system by Friday, with no major intersection flooding reported but storm drains being cleared as a precaution.

We've had about two dozen complaints come in through 311 already. No major flooding at the intersections, but we want to get those storm drains cleared as quickly as possible to prevent flooding.— Rachel Gordon, SF Public Works

The storm sequence is being driven by a strengthening El Niño. According to Newser, a Thursday memo from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicated the system is likely to keep intensifying through the remainder of 2026 and stands a good chance of becoming stronger than any El Niño on record since 1950. The City of Santa Rosa declared a local emergency Thursday to prepare for possible flooding, landslides, and fallen trees, with city crews clearing drainage systems and preparing rescue teams. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in September, directing state agencies to prepare for flooding, landslides, power outages, and coastal damage.

There's absolutely nothing we can do to hold back the Pacific Ocean.— Gary Griggs, UC Santa Cruz coastal scientist

This is not your normal El Nino.— Daniel Rudnick, UC San Diego oceanographer

Despite the dramatic surf and sustained wet pattern, the National Weather Service says widespread flooding is not anticipated from the rain itself. Kennedy described the rainfall as 'largely considered to be beneficial rain,' and experts note the storms will help refill reservoirs and dampen wildfire danger. The first storm is also expected to bring the season's first accumulating snowfall to the Sierra Nevada, according to ABC7.

Northern California is forecast to receive up to 6 inches of rain total across the storm sequence, while the Bay Area could see about 2 inches and Los Angeles less than 1 inch, according to Newser. Forecasters are cautioning drivers about hazardous commuting conditions, warning that wind gusts could bring down dried-out tree branches and that travel through mountain areas will be particularly dangerous.

Why it matters — A sustained parade of storms — not just one event — is arriving during a potentially record-strength El Niño year, with life-threatening surf posing the most immediate risk to anyone near the Bay Area coast this weekend.

Sources differ on Maximum expected wave height at Mavericks: 40–50 feet (patch.com / nbcbayarea.com) vs Up to 60 feet (newser.com)

Reported by sfgate.com, abc7news.com, newser.com, patch.com, nbcbayarea.com